Users worried about AI labs' locked-in infrastructure capex and need for massive enterprise adoption to offset competition-driven profit pressure, while one referenced Buffett's capitalist caution.
Based on 4 visible X reactions from 19 accounts; directional sample.
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Labs are already bundling frontier models without price increases.
The one who put it most memorably was Warren Buffet. He said the following in many ways "If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s, he should have shot Orville Wright. He would have saved his progeny money. But seriously, the airline business has been extraordinary. It has eaten up capital over the past century like almost no other business because people seem to keep coming back to it and putting fresh money in. You’ve got huge fixed costs, you’ve got strong labor unions and you’ve got commodity pricing. That is not a great recipe for success. I have an 800 (free call) number now that I call if I get the urge to buy an airline stock. I call at two in the morning and I say: ‘My name is Warren and I’m an aeroholic.’ And then they talk me down.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2013/05/13/buffett-decries-airline-investing-even-though-at-worst-he-broke-even/
No enterprise worth its mettle will dabble with a single token provider. Why would you want to be price differentiated against especially when you have seen the saas cycle play out terribly in the past? All the while when model labs do not do exclusivity contracts and therefore commoditise the very value enterprises hold dear i.e their decision traces. I make this point here: https://open.substack.com/pub/unfilteredramblings/p/ai-companies-should-help-their-customers True Vertical value accrual with high margins from a model labs perspective can only happen when they shut down their APIs to all 3rd party businesses and do not engage in petty rat races with each other (both of which sustain their high revenue and valuations and therefore highly unlikely) I personally believe their best bet is to become healthcare/bio/pharma businesses bringing new and novel drugs to the market solving previously unsolved diseases
@lugaricano Las inversiones de esos laboratorios solo las salvaría una masiva adopción por parte de las empresas. Empresas en general, no solo factorías de software. Me temo que no ocurrirá.
@lugaricano the part that keeps me up is the infra spend tho like the capex is locked in before you know if you can ever charge enough to cover it
Here's a detailed analysis of whether and how AI labs can capture value https://www.normaltech.ai/p/up-the-stack-how-ais-escape-from by me and @akashkapur. (In the Further Reading section we discuss where our analysis agrees/disagrees with Prof. Garicano's.)
Users worried about AI labs' locked-in infrastructure capex and need for massive enterprise adoption to offset competition-driven profit pressure, while one referenced Buffett's capitalist caution.
Based on 4 visible X reactions from 19 accounts; directional sample.
Ask a question below.
Published answers will appear here.