Based on 7 visible X reactions from 13 accounts; directional sample.
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@alexolegimas I’m working on a post about this, but I would endorse the “no observable aggregate employment effects” conclusion. And, while causal inference is great, sometimes nothing beats looking at time series graphs.
@alexolegimas “Disruption” and “mass unemployment” are not the same thing and you can have the former without the latter (though I don’t think the former has happened on a large scale yet either)
@alexolegimas We haven't hit a phase change from actual AGI yet. It's still a tool, not a general replacement. We might be on the cusp of it, but we haven't even seen automated driving take off yet.
@alexolegimas In 2026 we don’t have mass unemployment, we have mass solopreneurship;)
@alexolegimas I’m working on a post about this, but I would endorse the “no observable aggregate employment effects” conclusion. And, while causal inference is great, sometimes nothing beats looking at time series graphs.
@alexolegimas “Disruption” and “mass unemployment” are not the same thing and you can have the former without the latter (though I don’t think the former has happened on a large scale yet either)
@alexolegimas We haven't hit a phase change from actual AGI yet. It's still a tool, not a general replacement. We might be on the cusp of it, but we haven't even seen automated driving take off yet.
@andreamoro Yes that’s exactly my point.
@EconBerger Exactly.
I was at a workshop yesterday and asked several technologists and economists who had predicted large job market losses from AI model improvement whether they are surprised about this. Models after all have improved in some ways *more* than projections. Most said “yes”, some are indeed very surprised. I do think disruption is likely coming, but it is not at all obvious that it will look like mass unemployment.
I feel pretty confident that the serious national security relevant implications of advanced AI will come years before the labour market implications https://twitter.com/alexolegimas/status/2076319970724807162
Based on 7 visible X reactions from 13 accounts; directional sample.
Ask a question below.
Published answers will appear here.
@EconBerger Exactly.
I was at a workshop yesterday and asked several technologists and economists who had predicted large job market losses from AI model improvement whether they are surprised about this. Models after all have improved in some ways *more* than projections. Most said “yes”, some are indeed very surprised. I do think disruption is likely coming, but it is not at all obvious that it will look like mass unemployment.