Marcus Compares OpenAI To WeWork And Predicts IPO Collapse

Correction: contemplated delaying their IPO, per NYT report.

@0xV0LYX false

@GaryMarcus this comparison gets thrown at every hyped company that blinks first

the difference is OpenAI actually has revenue, WeWork never did

@GaryMarcus What if they just delay their IPO so early investors can cash out at a better price? The US gov will take stake in them before they fall apart. This will provide a bottom floor just like it did for Intel.

@GaryMarcus this has to be 100x worse though. The amount of money spent on infrastructure by those banking on OAI and Anthropic being able to monetize is insane. If the profits never materialize it will go down as the biggest misallocation of capital of all time no?

@GaryMarcus framing it as a possible parallel is interesting but im not sure the two are comparable structurally yet

would need to see their unit economics first?

@GaryMarcus the WeWork comparison gets thrown around too much, but ngl it actually fits here.

price cuts before IPO is a hell of a signal

@GaryMarcus Maybe, though delaying an IPO isn’t the same as falling apart. The real signal will be whether they can show a path to sustainable margins without relying on endless hype.

@GaryMarcus Lets not just talk about OpenAI alone- even Anthropic will fall apart. I am thinking the other way around - Anthropic will become the 1st to fall than OpenAI.

@GaryMarcus Did you just quote yourself

@GaryMarcus WeWork's arbitrage broke. OpenAI's economics work. But they're burning $5B yearly on hardware with 3-year life, betting AGI works first. When your valuation assumes a specific timeline, IPO becomes a race, not an exit

@GaryMarcus Fair correction — WeWork had revenue, the problem was burning 2x what it made. Which actually makes the OpenAI comparison sharper, not weaker.

@GaryMarcus