Gary Marcus Bets Against AGI Arrival In 2026
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we will not get to AGI in 2026. happy to put money on that, @jason, if you dare.
It’s happening folks… things accelerated more in the last 30 days from a dozen players than in the last year Open Source models are compounding Frontier Models are refining When open source hits robotics, self driving and life sciences things are going to get wild 2026 will be the year it happened WERE AT AGI IN 2026 SUPER INTELLIGENCE IS 2027-28 ITS GONNA GET VERY STRANGE
At the end of 2024, @Miles_Brundage and I made a bet (details at my newsletter) about 10 things (see below) that one might expect a true AGI to be able to do, assuming you accept the usual definitions. Since we were targeting the end of 2027 we are now just over halfway through the bet. By my reckoning AI can so far only do 1, at most. @jason’s idea that we will see AGI by the end this year seems absurd to me.
@Jason the AGI in 2026 part is ridiculous. I hereby bet you $100,000 that at the end of 2026 no single AI system will score more than 60% (and likely a lot less) on the AGI-related tasks I proposed in my bet with Miles Brundage: https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_medium=ios
At the end of 2024, @Miles_Brundage made a bet (details at my newsletter) about 10 things (see below) that one might expect a true AGI to be able to do, assuming you accept the usual definitions. Since we were targeting the end of 2027 we are now halfway halfway through the bet. So far by my reckoning AI can only do 1 (at most). @jason’s idea that we will see AGI by the end this year seems absurd to me.