Investors Warn Frontier AI Labs Face Valuation Pressure
Debate focuses on whether labs can control interfaces as tokens commoditize.
Sheel Mohnot argues the model API business faces pressure as tokens commoditize and questions whether labs can own interfaces like ChatGPT or Claude for work, coding, and enterprise uses. Other voices including Will Depue, Dwarkesh Patel, and Nathan Lambert weigh in on AGI timelines, RSI within 24 months, spending races, and whether valuations remain sustainable amid unprofitability and competition. Elon Musk notes rapid capability gains. The discussion centers on structural business risks versus fast progress assumptions without consensus on outcomes.
I'm actually fairly bearish on frontier lab valuations. I've never seen the reasons articulated to my satisfaction, so before I go to sleep, I wanted to quickly jot down my thinking here. The basic issue is that the labs are highly unprofitable. This may seem like a simple…
New blog post on what would be true about the world if trendline continues and leading lab hits $1T in revenue by the end of next year. In other words, why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-might-get-10x-more-expensive
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7 postsEx-OpenAI guy is bearish on frontier labs. I’ve felt this way for a while… about the model API business. Tokens commoditize over time. The question is whether the labs can own the harness too. If ChatGPT/Claude become the default interface for work, coding, search, shopping,…
I'm actually fairly bearish on frontier lab valuations. I've never seen the reasons articulated to my satisfaction, so before I go to sleep, I wanted to quickly jot down my thinking here. The basic issue is that the labs are highly unprofitable. This may seem like a simple…
I'm somewhere in between this post and RSI, where the current valuations hold up, but the frontier labs don't immediately become worth 30T, rather have some challenging financial years and then end up being some of the biggest companies today.
I'm actually fairly bearish on frontier lab valuations. I've never seen the reasons articulated to my satisfaction, so before I go to sleep, I wanted to quickly jot down my thinking here. The basic issue is that the labs are highly unprofitable. This may seem like a simple…
i think this would be a great take if it weren’t for AGI. capabilities will not slow down, RSI is less than 24 months away
I'm actually fairly bearish on frontier lab valuations. I've never seen the reasons articulated to my satisfaction, so before I go to sleep, I wanted to quickly jot down my thinking here. The basic issue is that the labs are highly unprofitable. This may seem like a simple…
@willdepue ok but then you need an argument for why the economics change because of AGI? it's not immediately obvious they do, especially if there are multiple labs at a similar point creating competition
Given that AI from 2 years ago feels so old that it should be in a museum, then obviously AI 2 years from now will be mind-blowing
i think this would be a great take if it weren’t for AGI. capabilities will not slow down, RSI is less than 24 months away https://twitter.com/andrewho03/status/2082786931419812338
I agree that if you think "capabilities growth will be slower, spikier, and more data-limited than people currently assume", then you should be bearish on LLM companies. But the crux is just you think timelines are long, not necessarily something structural about the business.…
I'm actually fairly bearish on frontier lab valuations. I've never seen the reasons articulated to my satisfaction, so before I go to sleep, I wanted to quickly jot down my thinking here. The basic issue is that the labs are highly unprofitable. This may seem like a simple…