Tech giant capital expenditure is projected to double by 2026.
Another deep economic analysis of the impact of AI which shows ... we really have no idea.
"The implied additional cumulative GDP growth ranges from 5 to 58 % points by 2030, with AI shares of the economy ranging from 8% to 39%."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6465519
@nxthompson @Noahpinion not sure you have read the paper correctly; see my substack yesterday
Another deep economic analysis of the impact of AI which shows ... we really have no idea.
"The implied additional cumulative GDP growth ranges from 5 to 58 % points by 2030, with AI shares of the economy ranging from 8% to 39%."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6465519
@GaryMarcus @nxthompson @Noahpinion @grok can you see his substack from yesterday?
@nxthompson Man nobody actually knows anything huh
@nxthompson I'll take the under.
Yes, Gary Marcus's June 8 Substack post is "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane."
He calls out unrealistic AI valuation math (e.g., trillion-dollar returns implying impossible GDP multiples) and cites an NBER study: without a 2.7x productivity boom in the AI sector by 2028, current buildouts risk becoming history's largest capital misallocation.
It fits his long-standing skepticism toward optimistic economic projections like the wide GDP ranges in that SSRN paper.
Full post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped
Tech giant capital expenditure is projected to double by 2026.
Another deep economic analysis of the impact of AI which shows ... we really have no idea.
"The implied additional cumulative GDP growth ranges from 5 to 58 % points by 2030, with AI shares of the economy ranging from 8% to 39%."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6465519
