Like many of you, the question of why Anthropic is acting so batshit keeps rolling around in my mind.
Have finally come to a conclusion.
It’s existential risk alright. For themselves, not humanity.
Why? Let’s talk open source history.
If you weren’t around in the late 90s/early 00s it’s hard to describe how thoroughly Linux wrecked an entire industry of UNIX hardware and software vendors, practically overnight.
Sun. SGI. HP. SCO.
Countless smaller vendors.
All saw that business evaporate, taken by an open source OS running on commodity hardware.
There was no coming back. Some tried to embrace Linux on their hardware, didn’t really work.
This time, there’s not even a hardware play to fall back on for Anthropic. To add insult to injury, the most popular hardware vendor is making open source models and giving them away day one.
In the earliest days of Linux they ignored it, but the old guard remembers what happened.
They did eventually wake up. Tried dirty tricks.
Embrace, Extend, Extinguish to try and ruin open standards on the web and elsewhere.
FUD. Propaganda to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
None of it worked.
Today they have a new weapon. Regulatory capture. The models are scary. More FUD. They learned.
They try to get the government worked up about a race with their adversary. Limit China’s labs from distilling their models.
But they don’t care about that. They can’t even sell their product in China.
It’s open source that they don’t want to compete with.
They tell on themselves by being the only major lab to not release an open source model.
OpenAI, SpaceX, they have chips now. Datacenters. They’re hedged. Anthropic does not. Is not.
So they angle for a lockdown. Today it’s frontier. Tomorrow they ask for everything.
Tell them they can’t have it.
Can’t stop the signal.