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Depending on which path is taken here, this would be very unfortunate. In the more extreme bans, we would be asymmetrically disadvantaging ourselves. America would reduce the options for AI models in our market, whereas the rest of the world would keep gaining access to both closed and open models. We’d have fewer options for driving down the cost of AI, tuning models to industry-specific use-cases, improving the security of systems, and keeping competitive dynamics going to keep pushing the frontier of research. All bad outcomes. This should at least be a wake up call for American OSS investment.
U.S. EYES TOUGHER CURBS ON CHINESE AI THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS REPORTEDLY CONSIDERING STRICTER RULES ON CHINESE AI MODELS AFTER THE LAUNCH OF MOONSHOT AI’S KIMI K3. OPTIONS INCLUDE REQUIRING U.S. HOSTING PROVIDERS TO GUARANTEE THE SECURITY OF CHINESE MODELS AND ACCEPT LIABILITY FOR BREACHES, ALONGSIDE POTENTIAL PROCUREMENT BANS AND EXPORT BLACKLIST MEASURES, AS WASHINGTON RESPONDS TO CHINA’S RAPID AI ADVANCES.
Yes!
Yes, AND, more immediately, if we ban Chinese models, American companies will be 100% reliant on OAI and Anthropic to protect ourselves. Meanwhile, North Korean & Iranian hackers will use Chinese models relentlessly to hack our government and companies. See @huggingface https://twitter.com/chamath/status/2079236756365348888
Yes, AND, more immediately, if we ban Chinese models, American companies will be 100% reliant on OAI and Anthropic to protect ourselves. Meanwhile, North Korean & Iranian hackers will use Chinese models relentlessly to hack our government and companies. See @huggingface
The leading AI has already forked into two options. A: Closed source American that costs $26-56 per 1MM tokens. B: Open weight Chinese that costs $0.50-1 per 1MM tokens. If you force American companies to spend 50-100x more than their competitors abroad here is what will happen: 1. American companies spending 50-100x will at some point become financially impaired and the stock market will crater. This is the equivalent of the US Government saying we can only buy oil at $800/barrel even when the free market sells the same oil for $80/barrel. 2. In the short term, the revenues of the Closed American Labs may remain hi. But then their revenue will also crater because their customers in the US will be impaired and their customers abroad will have already flipped to cheaper solutions. This would be a terribly self-defeating form of intervention if it were to happen.