AI Progress Scenario Forecasts 190k US Median Income and 50% Unemployment by 2033

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For reference, in *2033* the scenario has a median US income of 190k, with 50% unemployement, because of tax on now ubiquitous AI labor. Given ubiquitous AI labor that could give half of people UBI, you can probably get some of that labor to do 100,000x as much MI as we've seen!

So I don't think the scenario is consistent with itself there, waiting until 2035 for MI to take off given this kind of AI labor in the early 2030s doesn't make sense. (And obviously if you have a "Citizen's Dividend" / UBI in 2033 you can get MechInt AI labor much earlier.)

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13 likes3 comments

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For reference, in *2033* the scenario has a median US income of 190k, with 50% unemployement, because of tax on now ubiquitous AI labor. Given ubiquitous AI labor that could give half of people UBI, you can probably get some of that labor to do 100,000x as much MI as we've seen!

So I don't think the scenario is consistent with itself there, waiting until 2035 for MI to take off given this kind of AI labor in the early 2030s doesn't make sense. (And obviously if you have a "Citizen's Dividend" / UBI in 2033 you can get MechInt AI labor much earlier.)