IDC's preliminary tracker estimates that global smartphone shipments fell 22.0% from a year earlier to 255.3 million units in the third quarter of 2026. The research firm called it the steepest year-over-year decline it has recorded for any quarter.
The figures cover new devices shipped into sales channels, not phones purchased by consumers, and exclude refurbished units. IDC also cautioned that the results are preliminary and may change.
Samsung and Apple weathered the drop better
Samsung shipped 57.8 million smartphones, down 5.8%, while Apple shipped 57.3 million, down 4.0%. Their market shares rose to 22.6% and 22.4%, respectively, placing Samsung first and Apple second in IDC's ranking.
The rest of the top five fell much faster. Xiaomi shipments dropped 29.2% to 30.7 million, OPPO declined 34.5% to 25.6 million and vivo fell 31.5% to 19.1 million.
IDC attributed the gap partly to Samsung and Apple's stronger premium lineups. It said Chinese brands face greater pressure because they sell more lower-priced phones, where surging component costs leave less room to protect both margins and sales volume.
Memory costs are reshaping the market
IDC said memory costs have risen about 350% since last year as AI infrastructure demand strains supply. Smartphone makers are responding by raising prices, tightening their product ranges and reducing their exposure to budget models.
Those increases are reaching shoppers, too. IDC said more consumers are keeping their current phones longer, weakening demand just as manufacturers face higher costs. Some vendors have nevertheless raised production plans ahead of an expected supply squeeze in 2027, creating a risk of excess inventory if demand stays soft.
IDC expects the market to remain constrained through 2027 and said a recovery may not arrive until 2028 at the earliest. In the meantime, it expects vendors with scale, secure component supplies and more premium products to be better positioned to gain share in a smaller market.
