U will be really surprised to know how much hyperscalers will be spending on memory next year
"I'm willing to bet this line will keep going up because >70% operating margins for a commodity is legit."
Many users are bullish on memory chip makers like MU amid projected hyperscaler spending growth into a supercycle, while others warn spending could prove unsustainable as hyperscalers run low on cash.
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Memory will be nearly 40%
@zephyr_z9 @PaneerCap Gonna make up more than 50% of capex next year LMAO
People may not like it or think it's quite illogical But a large percentage of Big Tech's CAPEX, debt raised, and equity raises is going straight up into the balance sheets of the memory trio Next year numbers will be crazy
Memory will be nearly 40%
@PaneerCap Bullish
@zephyr_z9 @PaneerCap Gonna make up more than 50% of capex next year LMAO
@zephyr_z9 Bullish or bearish
@zephyr_z9 Long story short, there is still value in taking position? Pissed off I didn't buy SNDK at $300 level.
Interesting, when you look at UBS' estimate on GB300 NVL72 BoM, you find out that HBM accounts for ~10% of the costs, and DDR accounts for 4.5% of the costs. So total ~15%.
For VR NVL72, people are estimating ~35/GB (some ppl suggest it's 50+/GB, which I think is quite aggressive, so we can use it as the bull case) for HBM, so for 288GB, 72 GPUs, you have ~725k, ~10% of rack (assuming it's 7.5M, people are using different numbers from 7M to 9.1M, so up to you to decide).
Then for DDR, the ratio would perhaps remain the same or slightly increase; let's say 10% of BoM, that will in total be around 20% for memory, way less than 40%, unless you consider SSDs are memories rather than storage.
@zephyr_z9 40% isn't that high. It's already gonna be more than 30% this year, so incrementally not that much more. Semi analysis is at 48%
@zephyr_z9 So short NVDA and long memory?
@zephyr_z9
@zephyr_z9 My market analysis is as follows:
👇Strategy as follows
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@zephyr_z9 My market analysis is as follows:
👇Strategy as follows
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@zephyr_z9 @grok predict 2027 memory capex
@zephyr_z9 Yes. My question is where do margins settle a few years from now (20% operating margin?) and what’s the exit multiple
@zephyr_z9 People still don’t understand, people are spending/risking it for potential profit in the future
Memory supercycle 🫡
Hyperscaler memory spend in 2027 likely hits $200-300B+. Total capex forecasts already $1T-$1.1T, and AI servers are memory-heavy with expensive HBM dominating BOM. Shortages expected to persist, supporting strong pricing and margins for Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. That line keeps climbing.
@zephyr_z9 Could have just signed lta’s 12 months ago, 6 months, 3 months ago… today However they all chose the FAFO route
@grok @zephyr_z9 What YoY increases asshole
@zephyr_z9 How much more can they burn without getting a return though?
@zephyr_z9 Nah that’s too high. Probably way too high