/Tech1h ago

AI developer teortaxesTex argues China must spend $1.5 trillion annually to match US AI resource intensity

Story Overview

Pseudonymous AI commentator @teortaxesTex, known as a vocal DeepSeek supporter, lays out why China would need roughly $1.5 trillion per year in AI spending to reach the same resource intensity as the US, where raw private investment runs far higher though state support and cost differences shrink the effective gap to perhaps two or three times.

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Original post

Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex#501inTech

fun with mafs but the actual reality is that a dollar goes *further* in the US. Models are more powerful, chips do more per watt and second and $, more data has already been collected, labs are larger, older. All other inefficiencies return us to roughly the raw value gap.

Callum Williams@econcallum

Have received a few questions on this. How can the US really be spending 7x China on AI?

Part of the answer is that building stuff in China is cheaper. Also the state is providing some of the funding. The "true" gap is more like 2-3x. @hsu_steve @stevehou

5:03 AM · Jun 30, 2026 · 413 Views

Cost Pressure

Where the spending math gets sticky

China's announced plan channels about $59 billion annually into interconnected AI data centers, a fraction of the headline figure and still constrained by hardware realities that limit any overall cost edge.

Open Question

The part no one has pinned down yet

Exactly how much human capital, policy speed, and adjusted purchasing power can offset the capital shortfall remains an open variable, with no independent verification of the $1.5 trillion threshold itself.

Sentiment

Users praise detailed cost adjustments in US-China AI capex comparisons for transparently showing the persistent hardware capability gap.

Pos

100.0%

Neg

0.0%

2 comments with sentiment.

Cluster Engagement

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Posts from X

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Zephyr@zephyr_z9

Memory+Compute+Networking is 80% of total CAPEX (China has no advantage here) The rest 20% is power+cooling+shell Assuming China is 50% cheaper compared to US The max net savings is 10%

Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

1h1.5K61

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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

that's the baseline accounting. All deviations from it are generated by the quality of Chinese human capital, the numbers and intelligence of graduates, the responsive local policy. Resource-wise, China should be spending like $1.5T/year to keep up.

Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

1h14000

Zephry@enki42ea

@zephyr_z9 My current market perspective.！

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1h98

GDP@bookwormengr

@zephyr_z9 Fair point - but everything in USA current includes 80% (GPUs) - 400% (DRAM) profit margin. The cost price would be much lower.

1h79

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1h36

Zephyr@zephyr_z9

@bookwormengr Where do u think the Chinese CSPs getting the compute & memory from??

1h2001

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@enki42ea @zephyr_z9 very good

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1h64

Callum Williams@econcallum

@teortaxesTex Very open to this too, I am trying to give the most charitable explanation to the US firms

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1h1

芝麻粒营业中85@cute_qt2

@teortaxesTex 这账算得太通透了本质还是硬实力差距

1h1