/Tech3h ago

Wharton's Ethan Mollick and Timothy B. Lee debate measuring AI progress by task output versus training compute

The debate centers on how to define exponential AI trajectories

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#184

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Ethan Mollick@emollick#184inTech

@binarybits @NateWitkin I think real work done is a reasonable thing to measure and is meaningful, as is work quality.

Timothy B. Lee@binarybits

@NateWitkin @emollick It's like saying that thanks to Moore's law the quality of special effects in movies is growing exponentially. There's no doubt they are getting better but are they 10x better? Hard to know what that even means.

1:37 PM · Jun 27, 2026 · 407 Views

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Timothy B. Lee@binarybits

@emollick @NateWitkin When you say we are "on an exponential" do you mean that inputs (mainly training compute) are growing exponentially?

Ethan Mollick@emollick

@binarybits @NateWitkin I think real work done is a reasonable thing to measure and is meaningful, as is work quality.

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