Ryan Greenblatt Stresses Scale Of AI R&D Acceleration Matters Greatly

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I think AI R&D being accelerated by 1.2x or so is very different from AI R&D being accelerated by 10x or 100x. The quantities matter.

A 10x R&D acceleration will yield less than a 10x overall AI software acceleration due to diminishing returns; I'm referring to the notion of "AI Software R&D Uplift" from http://aifuturesmodel.com.

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Source Posts on X

I think AI R&D being accelerated by 1.2x or so is very different from AI R&D being accelerated by 10x or 100x. The quantities matter.

A 10x R&D acceleration will yield less than a 10x overall AI software acceleration due to diminishing returns; I'm referring to the notion of "AI Software R&D Uplift" from http://aifuturesmodel.com.