DrTechlash says a new investigation maps funding behind the AI existential-risk ecosystem, including projections.
DrTechlash says their new investigation maps nearly $3 billion in historical and projected funding behind the AI existential-risk ecosystem.
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Nirit Weiss-Blatt’s new investigation assembles an illustrative $2.879 billion map of money associated with organizations and programs focused on AI existential risk. The Oct. 17 analysis combines several kinds of financial activity, including past philanthropic funding, capital transferred to affiliated organizations, grant recommendations and projected 2026 commitments.
My new investigation maps nearly $3 BILLION in historical and projected funding behind the AI existential-risk ecosystem.
That makes the headline figure a map of the ecosystem’s scale, not an audited tally of dollars already spent. Weiss-Blatt also excludes roughly $868.4 million in other reported, estimated or projected funding because the sources may overlap, remain uncertain or lack enough verification.
Coefficient Giving, formerly Open Philanthropy, is the largest component at about $2.034 billion, or roughly 71% of the mapped total. That figure includes historical AI-related grantmaking plus more than $1 billion the organization said it was on track to commit in 2026.
The analysis attributes about $486.2 million to the Future of Life Institute network. That subtotal combines historical U.S. spending with large transfers to affiliated organizations, so it describes both past expenditures and network capitalization. Weiss-Blatt explicitly cautions that the transfers do not prove the money was later spent.
Three smaller components complete the calculation: $216 million in gifts and grants organized by the Survival and Flourishing Fund, an estimated $112.4 million in historical and projected commitments from Macroscopic, formerly the Center on Emerging Risk Research, and $30 million linked to Schmidt Sciences’ AI-safety programs. The Schmidt figure combines a reported $10 million for 2025 with an estimated $20 million for 2026 rather than confirmed awards.
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Together, the five components add up to $2,879,021,510. The categories are not directly interchangeable. Some represent grants, while others represent commitments, estimates or transfers.
The methodology draws from public financial records, grant databases, tax filings, organizational disclosures and announcements. It leaves out about $505.1 million routed through intermediaries or distribution networks where double counting is possible, plus about $363.3 million whose amount, purpose or timing could not be verified consistently.
Other items, including a €50 million German Tech Resilience Foundation commitment, political and policy contributions connected to Anthropic, FTX Future Fund grants, a Grantmaking.AI commitment and the Schmidt AI2050 program, are discussed separately rather than folded into either headline subtotal.
Weiss-Blatt describes the project as a work in progress that will be updated as new grant records, disclosures and corrections emerge. The map is best read as her reconstruction of the ecosystem’s financial reach, with its assumptions and exclusions visible, rather than a balance sheet of completed spending.
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