I bet @ChrSzegedy $10k at even odds that a Fields Medal will be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030, excluding the 2026 Fields Medal cycle.

CS

Christian Szegedy@ChrSzegedy

@tamaybes Deal.

TB Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

6:10 PM · Jul 18, 2026

993TECH

Some of my previous bets:

TB

Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

I bet @littmath that in 5 years AI will be able to produce Annals-quality Number Theory papers at an inference budget at or below $100k/paper, at 3:1 odds in my favor. https://twitter.com/tamaybes/status/1899243709335822802

TB Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

6:14 PM · Jul 18, 2026

993TECH

Another:

TB

Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

I've bet my $10k against @mikeknoop's that deep learning will not lose popularity to program synthesis as measured by Google trends on December 31st, 2029. I expect deep learning to continue being more central to AI compared to program synthesis. https://twitter.com/mikeknoop/status/1850428691672871305

TB Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

4:42 PM · Jul 18, 2026

993TECH

@ChrSzegedy @tensor_rotator Want to bet on a human being awarded one in 2030 (which would be the one after this year’s)?

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Sentiment

Positive33.3%66.7%Negative

Positive Read

Many users dismiss bets on a human Fields Medal winner by 2030 as unrealistic or insane while others praise the researcher's prior accuracy on AI timelines.

Based on 5 visible X reactions from 15 accounts; directional sample.

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AM aman@amanmakhija1010

6:54 PM · Jul 18, 2026

@ChrSzegedy @tamaybes You are going to lose this bet. Even if they gave a fields medal to an AI researcher or one AI and 3 humans you would still lose. Not to mention AI isn’t even eligible.

BT Bluey the Blue Dog Le Guin@billionsmustliv

6:04 PM · Jul 18, 2026

@GuiveAssadi @tamaybes @ChrSzegedy Szegedy has been close to right so far, years ahead of time. I might have taken 2034, it will be interesting to watch this one.

GA Guive Assadi@GuiveAssadi

5:33 PM · Jul 18, 2026

@tamaybes @ChrSzegedy Where do you find these insane counterparties lol

FL flock@flock49600209

5:32 PM · Jul 18, 2026

@ChrSzegedy Hot take, luv it

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WI winston@winston412412

5:59 PM · Jul 18, 2026

@ChrSzegedy 🙄

TB Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

5:31 PM · Jul 18, 2026

993TECH

I bet @ChrSzegedy $10k at even odds that a Fields Medal will be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030, excluding the 2026 Fields Medal cycle.

TB Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

4:55 PM · Jul 18, 2026

993TECH

@ChrSzegedy Happy to bet $10k at 1:1 odds that by EOY 2030, a Fields Medal will be awarded to a human mathematician (excluding the 2026 Fields Medal cycle).

TB Tamay Besiroglu@tamaybes

4:42 PM · Jul 18, 2026

993TECH

@ChrSzegedy @tensor_rotator Want to bet on a human being awarded one in 2030 (which would be the one after this year’s)?

CS Christian Szegedy@ChrSzegedy

4:35 PM · Jul 18, 2026

105TECH

The fields medal awarded next week will be the last one.

27

16 saves

6 reposts

Sentiment

Positive33.3%66.7%Negative

Positive Read

Many users dismiss bets on a human Fields Medal winner by 2030 as unrealistic or insane while others praise the researcher's prior accuracy on AI timelines.

Based on 5 visible X reactions from 15 accounts; directional sample.