IG

IgnorantLurker@lubebaba

@teortaxesTex >or believe that something has materially changed in the 9 months that followed The lobbyists want to lock in, commit to something stupid and hard to walk back from, like a splendid little war in Iran. Your downsides are their upsides, probably. https://x.com/ChrisRMcGuire/status/2077151860926915053

EI

Eritrea is a democracy@GoatThatShitOn

@teortaxesTex Who is he trying to sell the narrative to with this tweet? There is no audience for it

T(

Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

I'm really unnerved by the MATCH Act stuff. In 3-5 days, Huawei will show the product of 6 years of chasing the frontier under sanctions and export controls, will say "we've finally made it back, without EUV and TSMC". Xi will officiate this. And almost at the same time, Americans will likely pull the plug on DUV servicing and the entire rest of their technological dependencies, forcing third parties to comply; might try to frame it as part of the Pax Silica solidarity. (There's also the harebrained idea that European woes with Chinese trade imbalance will be used as a pretext for this united front, though how "sell even less to Chyna" is a good countermeasure is beyond me). We know how the Chinese take such humiliations from last October, although Americans have perhaps forgotten and/or believe that something has materially changed in the 9 months that followed. It's not like the Chinese can afford to let it slide, either – they're nowhere close to self-sufficiency. The MOFCOM package was not even maximalist, and it was merely a warning + sounding of the dependency graph. Actual retaliatory enforcement of Chinese export controls would *cripple* European industry and much of American one. If all goes well, Americans will rediscover object permanence and walk it back once again, though more likely Trump will try to compensate with a direct Blackwell offer (won't work, they value domestic capability more than compute). If it doesn't, I'm afraid we'll see a series of really nasty market events. No idea what the floor for this situation is. It's not talked about enough.