Having observed the Hopper & Blackwell and now the Rubin ramp over the last 4 years, plz don't expect Nvidia to meet their deadlines Jensen operates on very aggressive timelines and puts too much pressure on the supply chain AI servers are much more complex than smartphones (the logic of the 2010s won't work here) and are also undergoing rapid iteration every generation (HBM, CPO, AP, 800 VDC, substrates/PCB size and complexity etc)
Just for context: last week people were claiming that SemiAnalysis had deliberately reported a CPO delay in order to help launch a fund (as far as I know, they only act as an advisor) that could buy photonics stocks at lower prices. The fund does exist, and now SemiAnalysis is once again reporting delays. So what’s the conspiracy theory this time?
It’s always easier to blame someone else when your investment thesis isn’t playing out (at least for now). Conspiracy theories about market manipulation are especially popular.
The possibility that your own thesis might have weaknesses or that you may have overlooked something rarely seems to cross people’s minds.
Delays are part of the game. That’s why you should avoid buying stocks that are priced for perfection.
