SpaceX: What is it worth?

SpaceX prices Friday at $1.75T. Largest IPO in history, edging Aramco's $1.7T.

Here are the narratives colliding into the open — and what each one is really saying.

Narrative 1 — The forced-buying machine - Nasdaq rewrote its rules May 1: top-40 companies enter the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days, float minimum eliminated - SpaceX likely joins ~July 6 → QQQ and every Nasdaq-100 tracker must buy - Float is just 3–5%. Low float + mandatory demand = mechanical upward pressure - Estimated forced buying once inclusions hit: $15–30B - The critique: insiders and bankers get guaranteed demand at a premium price; index investors absorb the bill

Narrative 2 — The S&P just said no - June 5: S&P Dow Jones refused to waive its rules. No fast-track - SpaceX reported a $4.28B GAAP loss in Q1. Fails the four-quarters-of-profit test - S&P 500 inclusion now mid-2027 at the earliest, and only if it turns profitable - That's where the real money is: ~$13T tracks the S&P, ~20x the Nasdaq-100 pool - The biggest passive bid stays on the sidelines for over a year

Narrative 3 — Morningstar: ~$780B - Less than half the IPO price - Built on fundamentals, not narrative - Implies ~$970B of the sticker is Musk premium, scarcity, and public-market enthusiasm

Narrative 4 — Damodaran: ~$1.3T - The "Dean of Valuation" pegs equity at $1.25–1.35T - Calls it "too richly priced," says SpaceX TAM claims are "reaching the end of what's plausible" — the S-1 floats a $26T AI revenue opportunity - He's passing on the IPO. Calls it "a loaded bet on AI and Elon Musk" - His verdict: the $1.75T is only justified if you accept the $1.2T private mark from months ago as already real

Narrative 5 — The trend line - Last hard private mark: ~$800B, December 2025 secondary - Extrapolate the recent ramp (~$37.5B/month) → ~$1.0T by June - The IPO isn't extending the trend. It's a step-change of ~$725B above it

The corridor Stack the independent anchors and a tight range appears: Morningstar floor: ~$780B Trend-implied: ~$1.0T Damodaran: ~$1.3T IPO ask: $1.75T

Every serious outside valuation lands $450–970B below the offer price.

The gap isn't earnings.

It's the Musk premium, a 3% float, and a fast-track Nasdaq bid — engineered scarcity meeting mechanical demand.

Friday tells you which narrative the market is buying.