Many users dismissed optimistic claims about repeated AI-driven industrial revolutions as relying on magic to overcome physical limits rather than reasoned argument.
Based on 5 visible X reactions from 6 accounts; directional sample.
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@anderssandberg @jasoncrawford The problem is that I am suggesting we are running up against the limits of physical possibility, and the best people can respond is “line goes up” or “ASI will be like magic.” This strikes me as far closer to religious faith than anything reasoned.
@jasoncrawford This is a very poor response. I am not making an argument from tradition, custom, ye olde ways. This is a dodge and not an intellectually responsible one.
@Scholars_Stage @jasoncrawford But we are the generation that believes that our words echoed back to us is "artificial intelligence
@jasoncrawford What a line!
The Gods Of Straight Lines are more powerful than the Gods Of The Copybook Headings, so if you try to use common sense on this problem you will fail. … “Imagine being a futurist in ancient Greece presented with world GDP doubling time. Take the trend seriously, and in two thousand years, the future would be fifty thousand times richer. Every man would live better than the Shah of Persia! There would have to be so many people in the world you would need to tile entire countries with cityscape, or build structures higher than the hills just to house all of them. Just to sustain itself, the world would need transportation networks orders of magnitude faster than the fastest horse. But common sense was wrong and the trendline was right.” @slatestarcodex https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/10/15/is-science-slowing-down/
The debate analyzes whether physical limits can halt AI-driven GDP acceleration.
@anderssandberg @jasoncrawford The problem is that I am suggesting we are running up against the limits of physical possibility, and the best people can respond is “line goes up” or “ASI will be like magic.” This strikes me as far closer to religious faith than anything reasoned.
@jasoncrawford This is a very poor response. I am not making an argument from tradition, custom, ye olde ways. This is a dodge and not an intellectually responsible one.
@Scholars_Stage @jasoncrawford But we are the generation that believes that our words echoed back to us is "artificial intelligence
The Gods Of Straight Lines are more powerful than the Gods Of The Copybook Headings, so if you try to use common sense on this problem you will fail. … “Imagine being a futurist in ancient Greece presented with world GDP doubling time. Take the trend seriously, and in two thousand years, the future would be fifty thousand times richer. Every man would live better than the Shah of Persia! There would have to be so many people in the world you would need to tile entire countries with cityscape, or build structures higher than the hills just to house all of them. Just to sustain itself, the world would need transportation networks orders of magnitude faster than the fastest horse. But common sense was wrong and the trendline was right.” @slatestarcodex https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/10/15/is-science-slowing-down/
The glib answer is: it won't take several decades; we'll see a singularity that reaches physical limits significantly faster. The short answer is: with smart enough AIs, robots can double the supply of chips, energy, and robots in less than a year. The long answer is: see https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a, https://www.forethought.org/research/the-industrial-explosion, https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rpqGWRoRWvqJ4Hqgn/the-ai-industrial-explosion-part-1-maximum-growth-rates-with, and https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator/. If AIs can automate all cognitive labor, it seems very doable to have robot labor supply that can build a full copy of itself (including energy, fabs, and chips) in less than a year. This yields exponential growth and improvements in technology from the increased labor supply make this growth superexponential. This is analogous to the superexponential growth we've seen through human history: over the last 2000 years the population has grown around 35x while GDP per capita has grown by around 20x. The population of robots can grow much faster than the population of humans (e.g. rabbits can double every few months in ideal conditions). And this larger labor supply will yield improved technology (GDP per "capita") analogous to what occured in the past.
Many users dismissed optimistic claims about repeated AI-driven industrial revolutions as relying on magic to overcome physical limits rather than reasoned argument.
Based on 5 visible X reactions from 6 accounts; directional sample.
Ask a question below.
Published answers will appear here.
The glib answer is: it won't take several decades; we'll see a singularity that reaches physical limits significantly faster. The short answer is: with smart enough AIs, robots can double the supply of chips, energy, and robots in less than a year. The long answer is: see https://ai-2040.com/supplements/economics-of-plan-a, https://www.forethought.org/research/the-industrial-explosion, https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rpqGWRoRWvqJ4Hqgn/the-ai-industrial-explosion-part-1-maximum-growth-rates-with, and https://www.cold-takes.com/the-duplicator/. If AIs can automate all cognitive labor, it seems very doable to have robot labor supply that can build a full copy of itself (including energy, fabs, and chips) in less than a year. This yields exponential growth and improvements in technology from the increased labor supply make this growth superexponential. This is analogous to the superexponential growth we've seen through human history: over the last 2000 years the population has grown around 35x while GDP per capita has grown by around 20x. The population of robots can grow much faster than the population of humans (e.g. rabbits can double every few months in ideal conditions). And this larger labor supply will yield improved technology (GDP per "capita") analogous to what occured in the past.