I think people overestimate the importance of "frontier algorithmic secrets" obtained via espionage/SF parties/bathhouses for PRC catch-up because they don't realize that China has *never been that far behind on research*. Baidu of all people published the first scaling paper.
@Object_Zero_ Use cases are too similar for AA index/Elo to become irrelevant. Intelligence is intelligence. You overestimate the value of espionage because you overestimate how far behind they were when this was all more open. Moonshot CEO did good work at Google. His mentor founded ZAI.