If your economy is a knowledge economy you're worrying about mass unemployment.
In contrast if your country has an industrial economy, you're looking at 10% year on year economic growth. Taiwan, South Korea, but eventually also less obvious ones like the Netherlands (ASML).
Some users see potential LLM-era gains or manufacturing wage benefits from the 10% growth claims, while others dismiss the projections as unrealistic amid extinction risks and production setbacks.
People impressed by Taiwan (TSMC) cracking the 10% GDP growth ceiling are not ready for the Netherlands (ASML) is bound to do the same in 2-3 years.
If your economy is a knowledge economy you're worrying about mass unemployment.
In contrast if your country has an industrial economy, you're looking at 10% year on year economic growth. Taiwan, South Korea, but eventually also less obvious ones like the Netherlands (ASML).
Post-industrial-society-cels keep loosing.
If your economy is a knowledge economy you're worrying about mass unemployment.
In contrast if your country has an industrial economy, you're looking at 10% year on year economic growth. Taiwan, South Korea, but eventually also less obvious ones like the Netherlands (ASML).
@SamoBurja 10% growth but for what? How long can they grow, when they are going extinct
I don't understand the pessimism. Who's to say the LLM era won't lead to a disproportional returns to the knowledge economy. Judging by stocks this seems to be where the smart money is going. There could be unemployment in knowledge economies. The effects on unemployment could also be insignificant while knowledge workers make significantly more compared to their world-of-atoms counterparts.
@SamoBurja ASML is exceptionally dependent on a lot of other parties to get their machines working.
Lenses? Germans. Software? Americans.
These are also limiting factors. How many EUV lenses of proper tolerances can Zeiss deliver?
@SamoBurja it's not super plausible that AI could kill knowledge jobs en masse but somehow permanently leave industrial jobs intact
@turincomplete I don't think knowledge work is going to end up becoming obsolete, just that it will directly drive demand for industrial growth, a new development economically.
@Luckyioo @SamoBurja What do you think ASML is and has been scrambling to do? It's something like *working extremely hard with downstream suppliers on ramping up production and supporting that ramp up with financial guarantees*
@SamoBurja I mean, everybody just chooses to ignore Ireland (you can easily GDP-maxx if you are a reasonably advanced small country)
@SamoBurja I would like to point out that rapid economic growth based on manufacturing will tend to raise male wages, which in turn will help satisfy female hypergamy, which will result in more babies. Please make it so.
@SamoBurja With respect..... ur perfectly wrong sry :(
For those manufacturing in *that specific niche* you have growth to look forward 2
Otherwise if ur not china ur gonna get out competed by dumping
Service economys:
Rich - in for an automation boon
Poor - imposible competition
@SamoBurja I feel like you are not taking into account the possibility that the Dutch government will bully ASML out of the country
@SamoBurja I believe that by the end of the decade, some company in the US, Japan, or China will have already replicated ASML's technology.
@prowrstlngstrng @SamoBurja Jensen says that energy abundance is more important low TFR, as robots replace human workers.
@cqkten @SamoBurja "Working with" implies problems with succeeding.
Otherwise reports would have stated "successfully ramped up" instead.
Zeiss is actually known to be a bit of a problem, because of its corporate structure.