Zephyr warns a hypothetical US-China AGI duopoly is highly likely, while Teortaxes doubts US diplomatic reliability
Story Overview
A Twitter exchange kicked off by a scenario of the US and China striking a pact to bar other nations from AGI development drew quick agreement from Zephyr that the outcome carries high probability and would represent the worst timeline, while Teortaxes highlighted doubts over whether the US could be counted on to hold up its end of any such deal.
Reliability Questions Linger on Any Pact
Teortaxes flags US diplomatic consistency as a key unknown that would need resolution before any exclusion agreement could even be considered credible by the parties involved.
No Concrete Indicators Yet Emerge
The entire thread stays grounded in a single hypothetical premise without citing real-world signals, meetings, or policy moves that would make the duopoly scenario more or less plausible.
Many users reacted negatively to ideas of a US-China AGI exclusion pact by blaming Europe's inaction, mocking the AGI premise as myth, and criticizing bad-faith shifts in sentiment.
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Most Activity
The US would have to cease being agreement-noncapable first
America and China agreeing to sophon lock everyone else out of AGI remains underrated as a scenario. Firefly timeline
Also funny how this sentiment resurfaces when China closes the gap, and recedes when the gap grows. They don't want such a partner
The US would have to cease being agreement-noncapable first
@zephyr_z9 My market analysis is as follows:
👇Strategy as follows
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@zephyr_z9 scenarios without structure are just vibes
what matters is the trigger and invalidation
@zephyr_z9 le chaton fat is not just a meme, it is a cry for help lol
@zephyr_z9 How?
@zephyr_z9 It seems impossible at this point, it could've been feasible in 2024 but Deepseek v4 Pro is so good, random labs in South America or ASEAN or where ever can just build on it instead of inventing from scratch. Qwen, Kimi are so good local AI is the highest outcome
@zephyr_z9 The economics already serve this purpose. Nobody else has access to compute.
@zephyr_z9 You can place the blame squarely on Europe for making a bunch of noise about being a third power and then never actually doing anything to become a third power
@zephyr_z9 @euinc_petition @euacchq @euacc
@suwakopro transnational transpositional transfer learning from NPT mechanisms would be one framework being considered, one might presume
@zephyr_z9 neither china or usa are anywhere close to AGI
mYThOs lmaoooo
@suwakopro @zephyr_z9 What do you mean, how? Denying access to frontier models to the rest of the planet. And sharing tech to convince each other they are not threatening decapitation attacks against each other.
Already happening.
@yammy1688 @zephyr_z9 this basically will create a outside economy. Silicon is not the only path.
@zephyr_z9