AI Capabilities Surge While Lawmaking Overton Window Stays Static
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I think AI lawmaking has been an interestingly non-innovative space in the last couple of years. We're currently introducing and debating laws in 2026 that are comparable in mechanisms and often less in rigor than SB 1047 and the EU AI Act.
This suggests that we might be in an overhang when it comes to the political meta surrounding AI.
Meanwhile, AI politics conversations empirically seem to be very incident-driven. For example, note how suicide coaching and mass nudification incidents in the past year have led to an avalanche of lawmaker interest in recent months.
Together, I think this suggests that sometime in the next couple of years, we are due for a more major incident and a political shakeup. Things that are currently politically impossible are likely to be possible soon.