Paul Graham and Sheel Mohnot argue it is mathematically implausible that Mark Zuckerberg's 22-year track record was purely luck

@pitdesi Got here by being lucky, where here = 22 years later? Do these people not understand how low the probability of that is?

@paulg @pitdesi Most of his wealth is Facebook which he got started at the right time but wasn't really an original idea, MySpace just dropped the ball. Then the rest is Instagram which was a good buy but only one action and then set and forget.

Lately he has squandered much of his fortune

@pitdesi The ad product is the greatest ad space ever made

@paulg @pitdesi You don't get it paul. he stole facebook, he bought instagram, he bought whatsapp, and turned them into a 2 trillion company. Anybody could do that, the hard part is the idea to post comments and pictures online.

@pitdesi Great idea. Adding more.

@pitdesi I am thinking of that line in the movie social network

“ if u guys were the inventors of facebook you’d have invented facebook”

I think it’s a little more than luck

@pitdesi Since X has hard limit on word limit, hence pasting my thoughts like this

@paulg @pitdesi some people just can't comprehend the math

@pitdesi I’ve been buying. The market isn’t respecting Meta deploying compute..but look at xAI. 1 deal away

@pitdesi “Never bet against Zuck”

@pitdesi claiming Zuck got lucky is like saying a president got elected despite being stupid.

that doesn’t happen.

you might not like them, but it’s delusional to ignore their talent.

@paulg @pitdesi Meta lacks the direction to innovate organically. Most of their growth post-IPO has come from acquisitions or copying Snapchat.

@paulg @pitdesi if they understood probability, they wouldn’t say anything evenly remotely close to what they regularly say

@paulg @pitdesi It’s actually very high probability, given the circumstances of his ascent and the incredibly easy path modern capitalism x tech has it.

@pitdesi I spend more $ on meta than on Google . There advertising and use if ai is next level

@paulg @pitdesi They need to not understand. If actual ability and work can get you to be rich, their mental model of the economy doesn't work.

@pitdesi the big question is are you set up to get the same returns faster with the main hardware players, MU and NBIS and others have grown rapidly in the same time

@paulg @pitdesi Yeah gee super lucky how did you wake up and buy a winning lottery ticket everyday 🙄

@pitdesi Zuck is underrated

@paulg @pitdesi They think all rich people are "lucky" and that they are "unlucky" and that's how the world works. Because they have zero agency.