Stripe proxy index shows the number of solopreneurs earning over $1 million more than doubled from 2023 to 2025

@DKThomp We're gonna be Japan

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/salarymen-specialists-and-small-businesses

@DKThomp more here: https://www.stripeeconomics.com/p/the-age-of-the-solopreneur

One way to make sense of this is "business formation is an inherently speculative bet, but you only reduce headcount if you're certain of AI as a substitute, and right now, most gains are still speculative."

Relatedly, big new essay on AI's reliability issues that I think you'd enjoy:

https://arachnemag.substack.com/p/ais-reliability-gap

Why? Did you honestly think AGI was going to spring fully formed from OpenAI’s servers?

It was always obvious AI would give people powerful new tools first, and only function as a complete replacement for humans later. And the fact that AI progress has been faster than almost anyone expected means a 2022 prediction of AI empowerment for some years to come was the obvious default prediction.

@DKThomp The Law of Infinite Opportunities at work

Humans will always invent new things to do

We are purpose making machines

(I write about that in here)

@DKThomp Predictions about tech causing mass unemployment are always wrong, because human wants are always unlimited.

@DKThomp We 100% would not have been able to open our West End nail salon without it.

@DKThomp Seems like some additional evidence to support the work of @MissLiyaP https://www.labormarketmatters.com/p/ai-transaction-costs-and-a-quiet

@DKThomp @advait_jayant It's quite obvious

@DKThomp Doomers in shambles.

@DKThomp Seems early to attribute this to AI

@DKThomp very questionable to include solo *founders* in these numbers that are clearly framed as one-person companies

@DKThomp It's probably addicting men and leading them down out of the labor force. Definitely not leading them to business creation.

The average user on ChatGPT is using it about his intelligently as they would be using Instagram. Anyone serious about AI has moved on a long time ago.

@DKThomp People underestimate the boost provided by AI to employment.

There are now more avenues to explore and potential to grow as a solopreneur, now that AI provides the means to materialize your vision. You may not be an employee, sure, but you are self-employed regardless.

@DKThomp How many of these entrepreneurs are doing things like self publishing AI slop novels?

@DKThomp definitely plausible, surprising how quickly things can change.

@DKThomp @DKThomp I have a study coming out shortly on exactly this!! Uses the business formation data that they use but also monthly household survey data, with event study as well. Happy to send over a preview if you're interested!

@DKThomp I think it is predictable because the internet produced a similar effect but this time its a multi-tool that can do work for us aided by the power of the internet.

@DKThomp That was my prediction😄👍

@DKThomp Agreed. The barrier to starting has fallen, but the more interesting shift to me is that AI is raising the ceiling for a strong solo operator quite quickly.