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Geoffrey Irving@geoffreyirving
@albrgr Putting 8% on "we'll cure the common cold by 2040" is a wild prediction given potentially imminent ASI, tho.
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Users express optimism that AI could already vastly outperform top human forecasters like Nate Silver, citing its potential as a massive capability leap similar to advanced trading systems.
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Alexander Berger@albrgr
@geoffreyirving it was explicitly conditional on that not happening!
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Geoffrey Irving@geoffreyirving
@albrgr True! Though I don't really understand what we're conditioning on, then. Quite a lot of modern 2026 biology is already AI accelerated; are we conditioning on turning off all of that too?
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Aidan Vyas@aidanvyas
@calebwatney AI, broadly defined, seems 100x better than humans at HFT / market-making (with no slowdown in sight)?
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MetaCritic “SnapCritic Summer” Capital@MetacriticCap
@calebwatney Nate Silver is like roughly 2,000 lines of scale written 20 years ago.
If there was a 200,000 LoC program that was better than him, someone would have figured out.
But they didn’t.
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