No cos then there would be an expanding shell of AI drones from AI planets.
AI is almost certainly not what causes the great filter.
Ben Golub@ben_golub
it seems pretty obvious now that AI doom is the Great Filter
2:00 AM · Jun 11, 2026 · 3.2K Views
Debate over AI as the Fermi Paradox's Great Filter hinges on whether machine civilizations would inevitably expand into space
Story Overview
The conversation centers on whether advanced AI might serve as the Great Filter that stops civilizations from spreading across space, with Gavin Leech sketching three pathways where AI-related risks prevent detectable expansion while others push back that any such AI would likely still produce visible colonization.
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Open Question
Why the expansion question divides forecasters
Leech's scenarios include AI weapons wiping out biospheres or rushed takeovers that leave no outward traces, yet this framing leaves open whether those outcomes actually silence the cosmic signal or simply shift it to machine activity.
Expansion Puzzle
Pushback on silent AI filters
Anders Sandberg and Robin Hanson counter that dangerous or post-human AI would probably expand anyway and mimic the alien signatures the filter is meant to explain, making the absence of drone spheres evidence against AI as the main culprit.
Sentiment
Many users highlight Robin Hanson's distinction rejecting AI doom as the Great Filter because such nuances are frequently missed in Fermi Paradox discussions.
Pos
66.7%
Neg
33.3%
5 comments with sentiment.
Cluster Engagement
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Robin Hanson@robinhanson
No, even an AI that replaced humans entirely could stil go on to visibly fill the universe. @KatjaGrace pointed this out long ago.
Ben Golub@ben_golub
it seems pretty obvious now that AI doom is the Great Filter
3hViews 4.6KLikes 56Bookmarks 3
Ben Golub@ben_golub
i (sincerely) love that this offhand post had the comforting consequence of many people showing up to tell me that i wouldn't pass the first-year qualifying exam in Great Filter Studies
Ben Golub@ben_golub
it seems pretty obvious now that AI doom is the Great Filter
2hViews 2.6KLikes 20Bookmarks 2
Anders Sandberg@anderssandberg
@ben_golub Not convinced. Dangerous AI is likely expansive; hence it just replaces the aliens with alien AI in the Great Filter discussion. Indeed, there may be an anticorrelation here that makes AI risk and future great filters mutually inhibitory: https://www.emerald.com/fs/article-abstract/21/1/130/89683/When-two-existential-risks-are-better-than-one?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Ben Golub@ben_golub
it seems pretty obvious now that AI doom is the Great Filter
3hViews 323Likes 17Bookmarks 2
gavin leech (Non-Reasoning)@gleech
Only in 3 scenarios:
1. Vulnerable world: AI weapons destroy biosphere & AIs can't recover alone (20%?) 2. Rushed AI takeover destroys biosphere & AIs (5%?) 3. Dark forest: bio doom but AI satisficers beat maximisers for a long, long time (2%?)
(made-up numbers for one civ)
Ben Golub@ben_golub
it seems pretty obvious now that AI doom is the Great Filter
3hViews 674Likes 9Bookmarks 1
gavin leech (Non-Reasoning)@gleech
@ben_golub But for the observed total silence you need these to hold for all civs, i.e. raise this 0.27^n, where n is unlikely to be small.
(And if p varies across civilizations, the expected product of kill probabilities becomes worse than p^n by Jensen)
gavin leech (Non-Reasoning)@gleech
Only in 3 scenarios:
1. Vulnerable world: AI weapons destroy biosphere & AIs can't recover alone (20%?) 2. Rushed AI takeover destroys biosphere & AIs (5%?) 3. Dark forest: bio doom but AI satisficers beat maximisers for a long, long time (2%?)
(made-up numbers for one civ)
3hViews 189Likes 2Bookmarks 0
Jonny Spicer🔸@jjspicer
@NathanpmYoung Do you think there are ways in which ASI might extinct a civilization that wouldn’t result in “AI drones from AI planets”?
(FWIW I strongly disagree with your claim)
5hViews 53Likes 2
Nathan is sometimes at Summer Camp (say hi👋) 🔎@NathanpmYoung
@jjspicer Very few. Hence almost certainly.
5hViews 48Likes 1
Colin@squarepianocase
@robinhanson @KatjaGrace *I* could do that, but I doubt Elon Musk could!
8mViews 10Likes 1
BSmith 🦈@SumisuBii
@squarepianocase @robinhanson @KatjaGrace Why would more exploratory AIs be selected against? It seems like they would be the winners in any territorial expansion, and would thereby become more visible.
1hViews 9Likes 1
Yosarian2@YosarianTwo
@NathanpmYoung Yeah; at minimum, there's no reason to think an ASI would be *less* noticeable on the galactic scale than biological intelligence.
4hViews 28Likes 4
Colin@squarepianocase
@SumisuBii @robinhanson @KatjaGrace Conflict is dangerous?
1hViews 9
gavin leech (Non-Reasoning)@gleech
@ben_golub Good news: a late filter is not most likely:
Bayesian Drake puts >33% on us being alone; and Hanson's newer work guesses that expansion is at relativistic speed, so you'd see nothing until shortly before aliens arrive, and but we're early.
3hViews 7
Robin Hanson@robinhanson
@squarepianocase @KatjaGrace Why is it less likely there will be an AI like Musk?
6mViews 4
Tyler John@tyler_m_john
@NathanpmYoung Chimpanzees: humans are the great filter
5hViews 73Likes 1
Peli Grietzer@peligrietzer
@ben_golub Great filter tricks you're never taught at school
1hViews 70Likes 1
Tombos21@tombos21
@NathanpmYoung Not necessarily expansionist though
5hViews 189
Workhouse Overseer 🌐🥑🍌@RepealTCPA1947
@NathanpmYoung Why would an AI want to explore space?
1hViews 61
LANGERIUS@Langerius
@robinhanson @KatjaGrace that's an important distinction people often miss
3hViews 15Likes 1
Robin Hanson@robinhanson
@philipphummart @KatjaGrace The great filter just isn't about whether a civilization is to your liking.
9mViews 8Likes 1
Jonny Spicer🔸@jjspicer
@NathanpmYoung I’d be interested in chatting about this in a longer form than twitter allows
4hViews 22
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