Independent researcher Andy Masley predicts AI will become the central political issue of the 2028 presidential election

Also

@AndyMasley AI? Sounds like science fiction nonsense to me

@AndyMasley This was one of my main 2026 predictions that I actually just reversed (don't think enough normal people care enough).

Obviously

@AndyMasley Related

@AndyMasley I will bet you a beer that it’s not.

@ShakeelHashim FWIW this is a thing you hear occasionally on the Hill now (Certainly not a majority, but enough to be notable)

@itaisher Let's do it

@AndyMasley I'd take that bet. We would have to define the terms. I'm very confident that AI will not be the #1 issue among polled voters in 2028 (maybe not even a top 5 issue), though who can say what will be discussed most in a debate...

@AndyMasley What new partisan divide will emerge that will cause it to go from not an issue at all in 2026 to dethroning the top spot? AI could become a big thing and not fit concretely along political lines

@David_Kasten @ShakeelHashim I think it will be but in the sense that it’s so intertwined it becomes the meta-issue @AndyMasley

@AndyMasley If you judged by what people seemed to be most passionate about in major news media/social media, you would have guessed that social justice or climate change or LGBTQ issues would be big issues for voters in 2024.

@AndyMasley FWIW, I deeply appreciate your work, but I think you're extrapolating too much from the battlefields here on social media and various articles. I think most people don't care too much about this, or only have an opinion if asked.

@AndyMasley I feel like the first "techlash" circa 2016 - 2025 is instructive on why this may not be the case (or if it is, it won't result in meaningful policy change)

@buildhomez I suspect it's gonna start really disrupting more white collar jobs, be much more widely used, and there's a deep undercurrent of intense backlash that I only see getting stronger already

@AndyMasley I'm waiting for someone to manufacture the next politically useful spokeschild for the AI debate.

Who will be the Greta Thunberg, David Hogg, etc. for the Luddites in this battle? I'm sure they'll find/create one.

Somebody's gotta sell the story that AI shot Bambi's mom...

@AndyMasley Here is my argument for why it won't be the main issue. Bookmark this for June of '28!

https://pub.bluehorizonproject.org/p/online-ai-discourse-doesnt-make-it

@AndyMasley Deal

@AndyMasley I'm also betting against this. It might become one of the most important issues, but not *the* most important one.

@AndyMasley unfortunately you