"legally independent European operating entity with its own operational control, or through licensing the model weights to a European operator under European governance."
USG will never allow this to happen. They have the toolkit to stop this
I’m not sure what the gravest consequence will ultimately be. There are many possible outcomes.
Anthropic could gain European sovereignty out of this, and from an investor’s standpoint it may even have to, just to keep the momentum alive. We know, after all, how the stock market values companies in which the government has a say and can pull the plug at any time. And there is a difference between a government that could do this and one that has just proven it will The current valuation cannot be sustained under those circumstances.
How it could work has long been sketched out: either through a legally independent European operating entity with its own operational control, or through licensing the model weights to a European operator under European governance. The blueprints already exist.
And the consequence for the US? It loses influence.
Once again, a decision by this administration meant to project power and toughness in the short term, but achieving the exact opposite in the long run. It gives away influence voluntarily. This administration’s path so far has been paved with moves like these. It mistakes the exercise of power for the preservation of power, and won’t notice the difference until both are gone.
The same playbook is already visible in the military sphere with Europe. For decades the United States acted as the continent’s security guarantor and benefited enormously from that role. This administration chose to exploit the dependency instead, and the consequence is a Europe now rearming on a massive scale, largely without US companies at the table. The US is losing political and economic power and influence.
The export restrictions imposed on NVIDIA’s sales to China are another example. The result is that China is actively reducing its dependence on NVIDIA GPUs and increasingly turning to homegrown solutions.
„Whoever tries to hold on to the world will lose it.” Laozi
