@Alfred_Lin +1. Right question is not if they will do it but if it's one of the top 3 things they think about when they wake up

@Alfred_Lin How could you ever even quantify something like “your velocity advantage outpaces their distribution advantage”

@davidlee Great question

@Alfred_Lin I tend to think the question is more of a test of honesty—sure they could, but we have xyz advantage (and you’d hope there’s some cannibalization dynamic for why the incumbent is disincentivised to do what you’re doing)

@Alfred_Lin I think I’m misunderstanding your point - there are tons of companies that genuinely are clones of others (or features of them) and become successful by basically exploiting market arbitrage in under developed or served markets - PRC was literally for a long time a textbook ex.

@HassanRIsmail There are many startups that are truly just features of other companies instead of standalone products. You don't hear about those startups, because there wasn't a market for them to succeed in.

@Alfred_Lin @rubenharris big companies joining in will often radically understaff the product anyway

@joshu @rubenharris Overstaffing is likely a bigger impediment than understaffing

@4lexsvv Agreed, that's my point. If you are that easily dissuaded, you should be honest with yourself if you are truly committed.

@Alfred_Lin That doesn’t sound like something that is possible to ever know but tell me if I’m wrong

@Alfred_Lin It also helps if you are committed enough to push forward anyway.

That is a founder super power.

Speaking as an AI founder, FYI.

@Alfred_Lin Your leader asked us not to introspect. Now I'm confused. 😅

@Alfred_Lin i'd honestly argue (1) is a vacuous truth when you consider that there are always global markets that you can tap into and outcompete in even against big tech

@Alfred_Lin I think a third point is that you can't have a significant portion of your stack dependent on frontier intelligence. It's essentially like fighting a war against the same person who supplies your ammunition.

@TPKINGNATION We like to repeat history. I'm sure many people told others not to start banks or new car companies too.

@mjzellinger How so?

@Alfred_Lin 3 'openai will do this' convos since launch, still shipping

@Alfred_Lin For AI era, this is a wrong debate too. In 1997, people certainly said the same thing to Larry & Sergei about Internet Explorer, Yahoo. Whenever I hear that, I take it as an excuse and insult of intelligence.

the real question isn't "will they build this?" — it's "can they build it better than you?"

the labs optimize for general capability. startups win on vertical depth, speed, and deep customer knowledge the labs don't have time to acquire

distribution is wide but shallow. specificity beats scale in most niches

@Alfred_Lin if a lab can kill you in one release, maybe you were not building a company.

but if a lab entering the market makes users explain why they still need you, that is useful terror.

it tells you where the actual moat is hiding.