@scaling01 6-8 months behind is still behind but 'sandbagging' is doing a lot of heavy lifting here every time a US model gets beat the cope is always 'we have a secret bigger one' 😐
@scaling01 On the pareto frontier Kimi K3 is undeniably 1 month behind. Its better than opus 4.8 and gpt 5.5 while being cheaper
@scaling01 The mindshare gap is astronomical. Benchmarks don’t mean much to most people.
@scaling01 open source SOTA model across the board by march 2027 ±6 months
Many users rejected claims that MoonshotAI or other Chinese models could overtake OpenAI and Anthropic by 2026, citing failed past predictions, mindshare gaps, and US advantages in distribution and ecosystem.
Based on 14 visible X reactions from 25 accounts; directional sample.
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@scaling01 6-8 months behind is still behind but 'sandbagging' is doing a lot of heavy lifting here every time a US model gets beat the cope is always 'we have a secret bigger one' 😐
@scaling01 On the pareto frontier Kimi K3 is undeniably 1 month behind. Its better than opus 4.8 and gpt 5.5 while being cheaper
@scaling01 The mindshare gap is astronomical. Benchmarks don’t mean much to most people.
@scaling01 open source SOTA model across the board by march 2027 ±6 months
@scaling01 中国开源大模型最终会破产 无一例外
MoonshotAI will overtake OpenAI and Anthropic before the end of the year or will they? at least that's what the hype kiddies on X want you to believe So let me make it falsifiable. They are saying: - China / MoonshotAI is catching up - they are catching up generally (not just coding, but almost all domains and including restricted models like Mythos 5) - the gap is currently ~1.4 months based on Artificial Analysis Index and benchmarks provided by MoonshotAI, where Kimi-K3 beats Opus 4.8 in 30 of 35 benchmarks, and GPT-5.6-Sol in 19 of 35 benchmarks (they ignore the existence of all Mythos variants) - China is not catching up due to distillation, so they should overtake US labs Their implicit prediction then is: - a chinese model / MoonshotAI will overtake Anthropic (and OpenAI) on the Artificial Analysis Index by: - Median: 2026-12-24 (80% CI: 2026-09-17, 2027-09-14) Since they claim that chinese models are as general as american models, we should see unsolved mathematics, physics, and more being solved by chinese models at higher rates than american models. Speaking to its generality Kimi-K3 should surpass Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.6-Sol on the majority of these benchmarks: - METR Time Horizons, FrontierCode, MirrorCode, UK AISI cyber ranges, ExploitBench/ExploitGym, CritPT, FrontierMath T4, ARC-AGI-2 / ARC-AGI-3, WeirdML, ALE-Bench, GSO, MRCR2/GraphWalks - vibes --- Some other things that are more speculative and downstream of China overtaking US models: - more involvement by the USG - stricter export controls on semis - potentially a Manhatten-style project, as we will be behind in 2027 and are racing against China - also in the cards: US banning chinese models or US labs distilling from chinese models --- I have already stated my position clearly. Chinese models are generally ~6-8 months behind, with some domains like coding behind slightly less. Kimi-K3 did not significantly shift my estimate on the gap and it currently does not change my outlook on the future, but we will have a MUCH clearer picture once we have all the benchmarks I mentioned earlier. The main reasons for my position: - Kimi-K3 doesn't even beat Mythos Preview, a ~5 month old model - We will likely not see much larger open models than Kimi-K3 for several months, likely not until early-mid 2027 - Meanwhile Anthropic is sitting on a 10T model since ~February, OpenAI likely just finished the training of GPT-6, which should also be around that size, and more 10T param US models are coming from SpaceX AI, Google and Meta. - We are currently not seeing the true frontier of models. Anthropic and OpenAI are currently sandbagging as the legal situation for releasing new frontier models is unclear. - Historically, chinese models have been more benchmaxxed than US models, meaning their benchmark numbers do not translate to real world performance as well as their american counterparts - GPT-5.6-Sol is still 2-3x more token-efficient on the Artificial Analysis Index than Kimi-K3 (while likely being smaller, ~2T) - US labs have more compute --- I'm very happy that Kimi bros released this model. It's a great model and probably the first really useful chinese model.
The analyst argues US frontier labs hold a 6-to-8-month lead.
@scaling01 中国开源大模型最终会破产 无一例外
MoonshotAI will overtake OpenAI and Anthropic before the end of the year or will they? at least that's what the hype kiddies on X want you to believe So let me make it falsifiable. They are saying: - China / MoonshotAI is catching up - they are catching up generally (not just coding, but almost all domains and including restricted models like Mythos 5) - the gap is currently ~1.4 months based on Artificial Analysis Index and benchmarks provided by MoonshotAI, where Kimi-K3 beats Opus 4.8 in 30 of 35 benchmarks, and GPT-5.6-Sol in 19 of 35 benchmarks (they ignore the existence of all Mythos variants) - China is not catching up due to distillation, so they should overtake US labs Their implicit prediction then is: - a chinese model / MoonshotAI will overtake Anthropic (and OpenAI) on the Artificial Analysis Index by: - Median: 2026-12-24 (80% CI: 2026-09-17, 2027-09-14) Since they claim that chinese models are as general as american models, we should see unsolved mathematics, physics, and more being solved by chinese models at higher rates than american models. Speaking to its generality Kimi-K3 should surpass Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.6-Sol on the majority of these benchmarks: - METR Time Horizons, FrontierCode, MirrorCode, UK AISI cyber ranges, ExploitBench/ExploitGym, CritPT, FrontierMath T4, ARC-AGI-2 / ARC-AGI-3, WeirdML, ALE-Bench, GSO, MRCR2/GraphWalks - vibes --- Some other things that are more speculative and downstream of China overtaking US models: - more involvement by the USG - stricter export controls on semis - potentially a Manhatten-style project, as we will be behind in 2027 and are racing against China - also in the cards: US banning chinese models or US labs distilling from chinese models --- I have already stated my position clearly. Chinese models are generally ~6-8 months behind, with some domains like coding behind slightly less. Kimi-K3 did not significantly shift my estimate on the gap and it currently does not change my outlook on the future, but we will have a MUCH clearer picture once we have all the benchmarks I mentioned earlier. The main reasons for my position: - Kimi-K3 doesn't even beat Mythos Preview, a ~5 month old model - We will likely not see much larger open models than Kimi-K3 for several months, likely not until early-mid 2027 - Meanwhile Anthropic is sitting on a 10T model since ~February, OpenAI likely just finished the training of GPT-6, which should also be around that size, and more 10T param US models are coming from SpaceX AI, Google and Meta. - We are currently not seeing the true frontier of models. Anthropic and OpenAI are currently sandbagging as the legal situation for releasing new frontier models is unclear. - Historically, chinese models have been more benchmaxxed than US models, meaning their benchmark numbers do not translate to real world performance as well as their american counterparts - GPT-5.6-Sol is still 2-3x more token-efficient on the Artificial Analysis Index than Kimi-K3 (while likely being smaller, ~2T) - US labs have more compute --- I'm very happy that Kimi bros released this model. It's a great model and probably the first really useful chinese model.
so what if those things don't happen? well, then Chinese models are not catching up and further behind than just 1.4 months and/or the Artificial Analysis Index is in fact not measuring general capability but just a slice or chinese models are in fact distilling and therefore can't overtake and pull away from US models i had to keep this short. I need to sleep.
come on, show some balls make your predictions not like Nathan tweeting something along the lines: "gap between open and closed models ~0 months" and then deleting it again
btw if you exclude OpenAI and Anthropic models pre Kimi K2 it shifts the overtaking slightly further out to Q1, because progress has obviously been much faster recently than before 2025
i hope you have already seen the issue here they are including Mythos in their statements but then completely ignore it when it comes to the actual benchmarks
time will reveal who is/was coping
MoonshotAI will overtake OpenAI and Anthropic before the end of the year or will they? at least that's what the hype kiddies on X want you to believe So let me make it falsifiable. They are saying: - China / MoonshotAI is catching up - they are catching up generally (not just coding, but almost all domains and including restricted models like Mythos 5) - the gap is currently ~1.4 months based on Artificial Analysis Index and benchmarks provided by MoonshotAI, where Kimi-K3 beats Opus 4.8 in 30 of 35 benchmarks, and GPT-5.6-Sol in 19 of 35 benchmarks (they ignore the existence of all Mythos variants) - China is not catching up due to distillation, so they should overtake US labs Their implicit prediction then is: - a chinese model / MoonshotAI will overtake Anthropic (and OpenAI) on the Artificial Analysis Index by: - Median: 2026-12-24 (80% CI: 2026-09-17, 2027-09-14) Since they claim that chinese models are as general as american models, we should see unsolved mathematics, physics, and more being solved by chinese models at higher rates than american models. Speaking to its generality Kimi-K3 should surpass Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.6-Sol on the majority of these benchmarks: - METR Time Horizons, FrontierCode, MirrorCode, UK AISI cyber ranges, ExploitBench/ExploitGym, CritPT, FrontierMath T4, ARC-AGI-2 / ARC-AGI-3, WeirdML, ALE-Bench, GSO, MRCR2/GraphWalks - vibes --- Some other things that are more speculative and downstream of China overtaking US models: - more involvement by the USG - stricter export controls on semis - potentially a Manhatten-style project, as we will be behind in 2027 and are racing against China - also in the cards: US banning chinese models or US labs distilling from chinese models --- I have already stated my position clearly. Chinese models are generally ~6-8 months behind, with some domains like coding behind slightly less. Kimi-K3 did not significantly shift my estimate on the gap and it currently does not change my outlook on the future, but we will have a MUCH clearer picture once we have all the benchmarks I mentioned earlier. The main reasons for my position: - Kimi-K3 doesn't even beat Mythos Preview, a ~5 month old model - We will likely not see much larger open models than Kimi-K3 for several months, likely not until early-mid 2027 - Meanwhile Anthropic is sitting on a 10T model since ~February, OpenAI likely just finished the training of GPT-6, which should also be around that size, and more 10T param US models are coming from SpaceX AI, Google and Meta. - We are currently not seeing the true frontier of models. Anthropic and OpenAI are currently sandbagging as the legal situation for releasing new frontier models is unclear. - Historically, chinese models have been more benchmaxxed than US models, meaning their benchmark numbers do not translate to real world performance as well as their american counterparts - GPT-5.6-Sol is still 2-3x more token-efficient on the Artificial Analysis Index than Kimi-K3 (while likely being smaller, ~2T) - US labs have more compute --- I'm very happy that Kimi bros released this model. It's a great model and probably the first really useful chinese model.
so what if those things don't happen? well, then Chinese models are not catching up and further behind than just 1.4 months and/or the Artificial Analysis Index is in fact not measuring general capability but just a slice or chinese models are in fact distilling and therefore can't overtake and pull away from US models i had to keep this short. I need to sleep.
btw if you exclude OpenAI and Anthropic models pre Kimi K2 it shifts the overtaking slightly further out to Q1, because progress has obviously been much faster recently than before 2025
come on, show some balls make your predictions not like Nathan tweeting something along the lines: "gap between open and closed models ~0 months" and then deleting it again
MoonshotAI will overtake OpenAI and Anthropic before the end of the year or will they? at least that's what the hype kiddies on X want you to believe So let me make it falsifiable. They are saying: - China / MoonshotAI is catching up - they are catching up generally (not just coding, but almost all domains and including restricted models like Mythos 5) - the gap is currently ~1.4 months based on Artificial Analysis Index and benchmarks provided by MoonshotAI, where Kimi-K3 beats Opus 4.8 in 30 of 35 benchmarks, and GPT-5.6-Sol in 19 of 35 benchmarks (they ignore the existence of all Mythos variants) - China is not catching up due to distillation, so they should overtake US labs Their implicit prediction then is: - a chinese model / MoonshotAI will overtake Anthropic (and OpenAI) on the Artificial Analysis Index by: - Median: 2026-12-24 (80% CI: 2026-09-17, 2027-09-14) Since they claim that chinese models are as general as american models, we should see unsolved mathematics, physics, and more being solved by chinese models at higher rates than american models. Speaking to its generality Kimi-K3 should surpass Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.6-Sol on the majority of these benchmarks: - METR Time Horizons, FrontierCode, MirrorCode, UK AISI cyber ranges, ExploitBench/ExploitGym, CritPT, FrontierMath T4, ARC-AGI-2 / ARC-AGI-3, WeirdML, ALE-Bench, GSO, MRCR2/GraphWalks - vibes --- Some other things that are more speculative and downstream of China overtaking US models: - more involvement by the USG - stricter export controls on semis - potentially a Manhatten-style project, as we will be behind in 2027 and are racing against China - also in the cards: US banning chinese models or US labs distilling from chinese models --- I have already stated my position clearly. Chinese models are generally ~6-8 months behind, with some domains like coding behind slightly less. Kimi-K3 did not significantly shift my estimate on the gap and it currently does not change my outlook on the future, but we will have a MUCH clearer picture once we have all the benchmarks I mentioned earlier. The main reasons for my position: - Kimi-K3 doesn't even beat Mythos Preview, a ~5 month old model - We will likely not see much larger open models than Kimi-K3 for several months, likely not until early-mid 2027 - Meanwhile Anthropic is sitting on a 10T model since ~February, OpenAI likely just finished the training of GPT-6, which should also be around that size, and more 10T param US models are coming from SpaceX AI, Google and Meta. - We are currently not seeing the true frontier of models. Anthropic and OpenAI are currently sandbagging as the legal situation for releasing new frontier models is unclear. - Historically, chinese models have been more benchmaxxed than US models, meaning their benchmark numbers do not translate to real world performance as well as their american counterparts - GPT-5.6-Sol is still 2-3x more token-efficient on the Artificial Analysis Index than Kimi-K3 (while likely being smaller, ~2T) - US labs have more compute --- I'm very happy that Kimi bros released this model. It's a great model and probably the first really useful chinese model.
i hope you have already seen the issue here they are including Mythos in their statements but then completely ignore it when it comes to the actual benchmarks
@scaling01 bro stop crashing out (they won't, ofc)
Many users rejected claims that MoonshotAI or other Chinese models could overtake OpenAI and Anthropic by 2026, citing failed past predictions, mindshare gaps, and US advantages in distribution and ecosystem.
Based on 14 visible X reactions from 25 accounts; directional sample.
Ask a question below.
Published answers will appear here.
so what if those things don't happen? well, then Chinese models are not catching up and further behind than just 1.4 months and/or the Artificial Analysis Index is in fact not measuring general capability but just a slice or chinese models are in fact distilling and therefore can't overtake and pull away from US models i had to keep this short. I need to sleep.
come on, show some balls make your predictions not like Nathan tweeting something along the lines: "gap between open and closed models ~0 months" and then deleting it again
btw if you exclude OpenAI and Anthropic models pre Kimi K2 it shifts the overtaking slightly further out to Q1, because progress has obviously been much faster recently than before 2025
i hope you have already seen the issue here they are including Mythos in their statements but then completely ignore it when it comes to the actual benchmarks
time will reveal who is/was coping
