Wharton's Ethan Mollick argues the US could restrict open-source AI by banning corporations from hosting unapproved models

The point is that AI regulation will not somehow ignore open source as a loophole.

they can, but at what point does the richest population of all time stop listening to a factually criminal government with record low approval ratings. probably sometime

@emollick ‘banned’ only means those willing to break the law succeed. and they will. and they will.

@emollick The economics of banning doesn't add well. It'll create massive global demand for non-us afiliated opensource providers with ultra-cheap inference (GLM52 == Opus). If GLM53 goes 10% better & 10x cheaper than current american models, a global ban would guarantee inmense profit

@emollick That’s one way to hand the AI race to China

Enterprises are just going to invest in on prem infra and do what they want ultimately

Making it illegal to use privately is practically impossible to regulate

@emollick So run them locally?

Hardware is only getting stronger, that won't stop and neither will model optimization.

Not to mention VPN for hosting outside the US. You think Russia or China give a fuck what models the US allows?

There will be tons of options.

@emollick The key point is it would only be banned in the US…

@emollick However I don’t believe they can ban European or Asian companies from providing access though

@emollick it can ban open weights models as effectively as it can ban Chinese cars; make the entire rest of the world dependent on them, and kneecap American productivity. Really give the rest of the world a chance to catch up... US only de-growth.

@emollick @pmarca Yeah until those companies decide to restrict US Government access to software and hardware those companies control. Go ahead, swim to the ISS.

After everything we’ve seen in the past few weeks, I have no doubt they will ban all ai even Chinese models and only they will have ai, period. Which makes no sense because our entire market and gdp economy as of today is based on ai companies. This will torpedo the nyse and nasdaq overnight. Like 3k every day until it starts a new depression down 20-25k

@emollick Yeah you could just do what they tried to do with the TikTok ban and massive level fines on cloud providers or app stores that hosted them.

@emollick Subcontractors have been hired for shadier things in the past 🤣

@emollick Why Ethan?

@emollick They can go down this route, but it is obviously a route that leads to the US losing on a number of fronts.

Plus people will be unhappy, and increasingly so over time.

@emollick So this admin is doing exactly what the tech MAGA spent billion$$ on fear mongering campaigns against the Biden admin. If US bans Chinese open weights models and enforces 'review delays' on US frontier models, why would the rest of the world base their AI strategies on US models?

@emollick ngl this take is underrated.

most ppl think ban = impossible, but enterprise liability kills access way faster than download restrictions ever could

@emollick So all that talk about curing cancer and datacenter of scientists and abundance was all a bunch of hot air and the permanent underclass doomers were right all along. When powerful people get sole access to ASI you might as well hang it up. Your life won't be worth living.

@emollick Sure thing they could ban firearms as well. Unlikely though