Plausible and likely that smart phones have been a recent contributor to declining birth rates. But the overall trend of fewer children is a century old and has more fundamental drivers.

@krishnanrohit reminds me of this banger, but applied to 2007-10 instead https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

@krishnanrohit In this study, the variable is a different shock that differentially affected rural and urban areas.

The paper's data is not sufficient to identify the effect of the iPhone.

Imo it's a proliferation of broad time-sinks. When every minute has a relatively low-cost bid, unenforced long-term commitments will be affected at the margin. More bids, more impact. Phones represent some of those bids, but not the overall time pressure. It also helps explain tfr's relationship with urbanization well before phones.

@krishnanrohit

Cell phone theories of modern problems do suck though.

@Bielsabub I've traveled before cellphones and in places without cellphones. This is an improvement.

@ramez What are they? I keep thinking nature knows when the planet can't sustain a population level.

@krishnanrohit I think it’s also timing — we were also in the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis. People just didn’t really know it yet. Then we became hooked to devices during that time, even as we came out of the recession. And Big Tech monetized crippling our social life for their gain.

@krishnanrohit Everyone knows it deep inside yet not able to blurt it out openly — as long as differentials in economic status between the two genders continue being pared down & even skewed in favour of women, fertility would keep not only dropping, even accelerating!

@krishnanrohit I'm actually writing it up this week. also, the chart in the qt is odd to me, why would the effect be immediate? I'd think there'd be a lag, especially given the market for the iphone early on. it's not like a million low- or middle-income teens owned it.

@krishnanrohit I think a strong element is the death of privacy in public, specifically cell phones with cameras making it possible to be recorded at almost any time.

@krishnanrohit There’s a theory that South Indian states who got TV first had lower birth rates.

Might be the case that reels and new entertainment is the factor for low birth rates

@krishnanrohit The 2008 Crash was the first step for the young generation to be more careful in life.

Note the BIGGEST fertility fall in US have been lowest incomes the last 16 years.

@krishnanrohit I made a guess here

@krishnanrohit i think it's because of the legal system expanding as a result of anyone being able to record everything

@krishnanrohit its "attention"

the phones stole our attention, and social nets maximized the theft

@krishnanrohit Porn

@krishnanrohit @_vonarchimboldi

Traditionally, female years of education, child mortality, and GDP per capita* together predicted 85% of fertility, and the residual was unbiased.

Why have we discarded these? We know the answer but don't like it.

* I think maybe female participation in the waged labor force might be better here; I'll have to look.

@krishnanrohit Causal. You are delusional. You are coping. Your dna is good as toast within a generation.