I suspect the Manhattan Project was a mistake even given uncertainty about whether Germany would build nukes. It’s just such an enormous escalation, and set the stage for a hugely risky and harrowing Cold War.
The “we’re in an AI race with China” frame now feels similar.
Users in the replies directed personal hostility at RichardMCNgo's comments on AI race risks with China, calling him a moron who should be kept from power and accusing effective altruists of nazi apologia.
One reason I’m increasingly supportive of MAGA: both EAs (like Leopold and Anthropic execs) and the tech right (like A16Z, Alexander Wang) keep hyperstitioning US-China conflict to gain political influence.
Both groups are defecting hard in a crucial trust game, and should stop.
I suspect the Manhattan Project was a mistake even given uncertainty about whether Germany would build nukes. It’s just such an enormous escalation, and set the stage for a hugely risky and harrowing Cold War.
The “we’re in an AI race with China” frame now feels similar.
Also when I say “mistake” I’m talking from a perspective of ethical national interest. But of course the idea that the relevant decision-makers were operating from that perspective is a significant assumption.
So gloss it as “a mistake for ethical people to get involved with”.
One reason I’m increasingly supportive of MAGA: both EAs (like Leopold and Anthropic execs) and the tech right (like A16Z, Alexander Wang) keep hyperstitioning US-China conflict to gain political influence.
Both groups are defecting hard in a crucial trust game, and should stop.
@RichardMCNgo MAGA should be compared with Dems (their natural substitute), not EAs or tech right. MAGA seems more China-hawkish than Dems.
@RichardMCNgo Most of the nearby counterfactuals seem straightforwardly worse.
And this is uncharitable, but: lol @ "EAs are like the most brilliant scientists of the 20th century coming together to defeat Nazism, which is why I oppose them and support the nationalists who just attacked Iran"
@RichardMCNgo nukes arguably reduced direct military conflict between great powers. the alternative of invading mainland japan would've resulted in horrendous loss of life for US.
"an enormous escalation" I think the nazis invading all of europe & japan the pacific was a pretty big escalation
@trashbaby40k I notice I’m confused about why the “don’t invade Japan” alternative isn’t ever discussed.
And yes in this timeline they reduced conflict but in many nearby timelines they caused a nuclear holocaust
@EigenGender European hegemon, yes. But it would’ve been difficult for Germans to deliver nukes to continental America. Eventually, yes, but you can likely steal their secrets and catch up quickly like the Soviets did.
@stuartbuck1 There’s hostility in the sense of “we’re two agents with differing interests”, and then there’s hostility in the sense of “we’re locked in an existential zero-sum conflict”.
The tech right and EAs both talk in a more zero-sum way than MAGA about “winning” against China.
@RichardMCNgo Strongly disagree about the Manhattan project. It's trivial to say that the US would have won anyway, but the point is they didn't know that. And it was war for the future of the world.
@RichardMCNgo MAGA is less hostile to China than those other groups? Seems the opposite if anything (see immigration, new proposed rules on scientific funding, etc)
@Laneless_ Seems like a pretty important historical fact that the Manhattan Project did not in fact defeat Nazism!
Maybe it was reasonable ex ante but the actual effects seem pretty bad.
@RichardMCNgo Isn't EV is in favor of Manhattan Project even if there was like 5-10% chance Nazis would build nukes?
@RichardMCNgo @trashbaby40k that pales in effectiveness to my strategy, going home
@RichardMCNgo @grok what’s with the undercurrent of nazi apologia from effective altruists?
@jessi_cata yes, and they’re also more China-hawkish than a rock.
there’s a big difference between acting on one’s interests in a broadly ethical way, and hyperstitioning conflict for personal gain.
“China-hawk” conflates them.
@RichardMCNgo nah cope, stupid & bald
@RichardMCNgo @trashbaby40k doesn't that alternative incur an oom more dead b/w chinese caught within the crumbling empire & starved japanese civilians in the blockaded islands?
@RichardMCNgo I guess I don't see why the considerations you have presented are pro MAGA. MAGA is about electing Trump and people who Trump likes, and implementing Trumpian policies. It's not in competition with EA or tech right. And tech right on net supports MAGA.
@RichardMCNgo What is the counterfactual you're imagining
@RichardMCNgo Keep this moron away from power