A separate prediction for the Mythos system remains unfulfilled.
Another quite successful prediction by @DKokotajlo : Fable is intentionally nerfed for frontier ML research. This is within ~3 months of Daniel's prediction of Q1 2026 (made in 2023).
Although I don't think Mythos is automating ML research to the same extent as his prediction.
Positive users praise Kokotajlo's track record on Fable nerf predictions while negative users dismiss the claims with sarcasm and hostile accusations.
@a_karvonen Thanks! Note that this particular comment wasn't technically a prediction by me, so I shouldn't get that much credit. Iirc it was a hypothetical scenario I took seriously but wasn't my median timeline. At least that's what my fuzzy memory says.
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo Yes, Anthropic really do not like China companies distilling their models
@theojaffee @a_karvonen @DKokotajlo https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo I have an alternate theory: Mythos is nerfed for frontier ML research because it helped too much Anthropic in the past months (even in its own training?). Helping others on this could reveal Anthropic own trade secrets
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo Yes, "basically doing all the work itself" is incorrect, Anthropic just said explicitly it doesn't come close to replacing its researchers.
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo source for the Kokotajlo comment?
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo The truth is that Anthropic uses Daniel’s predictions as self-fulfilling prophecies. They were all preloaded in the Gantt charts years ago.
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo I might be the only one to really have an issue here but have noticed an insane amount of slow and Steady death of Claude ability to help with my computer vision training / methods etc for about 6 months
@a_karvonen @wrongplace_eth @DKokotajlo DKokotajlo has a good track record with predictions and Fable nerfing is a big signal. His Q1 2026 call is looking more real by the day
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo It'd be crazy if Q3 is when all the frontier labs declare that we officially enter the era of ASI
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo all according to keikaku
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo Somebody should put this idea in a book!
Oh wait.
@allTheYud @So8res
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo ml tasks have not really improved since opus 4.6 iirc so they have probably been stealth nerfing since then, which was q1
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo There is some distorting effect in that many of the core decision makers in Anthropic have read Daniel's writing.
@JeffLadish @DKokotajlo Does this note make it any better?
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo Real respect for him!
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo It could just be that they were inspired 🙂
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo what? the prediction doesn't seem to imply _intentional_ nerfing
@JeffLadish @DKokotajlo Hyperstition
@JeffLadish @DKokotajlo Things are happening about 25% slower than @DKokotajlo said it would in ai 2027
Not bad! (he did say Ai 2027 at the time was faster than expectations because mode =/= median)
A separate prediction for the Mythos system remains unfulfilled.
Another quite successful prediction by @DKokotajlo : Fable is intentionally nerfed for frontier ML research. This is within ~3 months of Daniel's prediction of Q1 2026 (made in 2023).
Although I don't think Mythos is automating ML research to the same extent as his prediction.
