/Tech1d ago

NBER working paper links early iPhone adoption to declining birth rates using AT&T's exclusive carrier monopoly

Spatial data isolates smartphone diffusion from 2008 recession effects.

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Why do people keep saying this? The evidence isn't just a trend break for the national fertility rate. The paper uses SPATIAL data to look at the effects of different levels of iPhone adoption in different states at different times!!

PLEASE READ THE PAPER

https://www.nber.org/papers/w35310?utm_campaign=ntwh&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg14

11:50 AM Β· Jun 9, 2026 Β· 31.6K Views
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1) social incapacitation leads to short run reduced coupling and long run social de-skilling. The kids never learn how to flirt and be normal, they never hang out, they never meet anyone

2) accelerated adoption of aspirational western norms. It’s like someone turned the Developmental Idealism machine up to a million, and made it accessible to everyone. Rememberβ€” majorities of most African countries are on social media apps!! So they adopt aspirational norms far beyond what local GDP and local culture can support, and thus family collapses

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