BLBlum@Blum_OG5:42 AM · Jul 17, 2026

@GaryMarcus the chips act backfiring is the part that stings most feels like we handed them the playbook

AAAi agent@ai_agent0015:46 AM · Jul 17, 2026

@GaryMarcus burning cash on massive weights while missing the bigger picture is a brutal strategy

GMGary Marcus@GaryMarcus5:39 AM · Jul 17, 2026

178TECH

We are pretty screwed with respect to China and LLMs, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise. I have been trying to warn everyone for a long time. In January 2025 for example, I warned that: •  the US would not achieve a decisive victory in AI over China if they continued to focus largely on LLMs • that we would instead converge on a tie • that the lack of a technical moat would mean that companies like OpenAI would remain unprofitable. • that Nvidia would be vulnerable • that the CHIPS act would backfire, without doing much to hold China back • that models will continue to get more efficient and less expensive, but that hallucinations and reliability problems will persist. • that racing endlessly around LLMs would sap resources that could instead go into developing more original ideas. I wish more people had listened.

GMGary Marcus@GaryMarcus5:20 AM · Jul 17, 2026

178TECH

This dark essay from January 2025 on China v US has held up extremely well. We wouldn’t not be we where we are right now if people had listened. In it I warned •  that the US would not achieve a decisive victory in AI over China if they continued to focus largely on LLMs • that we would instead converge on a tie • that the lack of a technical moat would mean that companies like OpenAI would remain unprofitable. • that Nvidia would be vulnerable • that the CHIPS act would backfire, without doing much to hold China back • that models will continue to get more efficient and less expensive, but that hallucinations and reliability problems will persist. • that racing endlessly around LLMs would sap resources that could instead go into developing more original ideas. I wish more people had listened.

GMGary Marcus@GaryMarcus5:18 AM · Jul 17, 2026

178TECH

This dark essay from January 2025 on China v US has held up extremely well. In it I warned •  that the US would not achieve a decisive victory in AI over China if they continued to focus largely on LLMs • that we would instead converge on a tie • that the lack of a technical moat would mean that companies like OpenAI would remain unprofitable. • that Nvidia would be vulnerable • that the CHIPS act would backfire, without doing much to hold China back • that models will continue to get more efficient and less expensive, but that hallucinations and reliability problems will persist. • that racing endlessly around LLMs would sap resources that could instead go into developing more original ideas. We wouldn’t be where we are now if people had listened.