Reactions from ranked influencers
14 posts
AGI will very likely be a commodity. This is not a value judgement, it's just the outcome of an economically-valuable product + competitive markets. Implicitly people see this coming and are leaning into it, hence the big push from all the labs to go vertical. A few things can prevent this: 1) regulation or 2) a moat, so it's definitely not a certainty. But absent that, this is where things are going.
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@herbiebradley FWIW I expect frontier labs will vertically integrate, but that they will continue to capture a relatively large fraction of the value they produce
@idavidrein *AI will be a commodity* would be the probably incorrect version
Commodities form when you can't innovate anymore, and it seems very unlikely we'll hit capability ceilings anytime soon, so I'd bet against this
AGI will very likely be a commodity. This is not a value judgement, it's just the outcome of an economically-valuable product + competitive markets. Implicitly people see this coming and are leaning into it, hence the big push from all the labs to go vertical. A few things can prevent this: 1) regulation or 2) a moat, so it's definitely not a certainty. But absent that, this is where things are going.
@idavidrein I'm still sceptical based on general diminishing returns and close competition, plus a more sophisticated enterprise post-training market separate to the labs so far the vast majority of value has been captured by consumer surplus and the compute layer
yeah i guess it could also be downstream of a view that AGI is near to the "cap" on how good AI can get... but I don't think the "we don't get into diminishing returns therefore selling frontier APIs won't get commoditized and labs don't need to go more vertical" argument is very strong, or I haven't seen it written out in detail