US revoking AI access to a developed country in a year or two might make it into a developing country
open source seem to fall increasingly behind, 6-12 months
most work will be done through ai, and a lot of companies will spend more money on tokens than employees
Many users criticize the US AI access revocation policy as self-injurious for developed nations and suicidal for smaller ones due to distrust in government officials and agreements.
ai will be extremely important for national security, the western world and its allies
wonder what scenarios there are here, it's a little scary but also very important to keep investing in ai and have western competing labs
maybe time to summon the @lesswrong people to link to scenarios, ya'll been thinking for so long, surely there must be a few well developed scenarios here
Spot on from @gabriel1 (Swedish AI researcher/founder at the frontier).
Countries like Sweden are AI users, not owners. If the US restricts frontier access, we could regress fast.
Three paths:
1. Go all-in on sovereign models + compute (brutal but independent)
2. Stay dependent and negotiate special US/Western access
3. Find a smarter third way (alliances, open-source coalitions, compute partnerships?)
What should small high-trust nations actually do?
US revoking AI access to a developed country in a year or two might make it into a developing country
open source seem to fall increasingly behind, 6-12 months
most work will be done through ai, and a lot of companies will spend more money on tokens than employees
@gabriel1 @lesswrong Europe 2031 was released a few days ago and did a good job walking how a "cut-off" scenario could work. It's also *very* well-written. Strong rec: https://europe2031.ai/
@gabriel1 @lesswrong @KatjaGrace and @gwern probably would have the best opinions
@milindS_ no, i am not agi insured
@gabriel1 @lesswrong From 2013 has some relevant stuff (including a prescient sub title) https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf
@FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 Europe needs to fix the business environment that prevented us from creating big tech platforms and later big AI companies, like those in the US and China
Regulations, taxes, energy policy
@gabriel1 Are you an American national Gabriel?
@FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 Literally shut down American-run datacenters if the US don't supply or limit frontier models.
MWh and grid connections are assets; treat them like that going forward.
I don't really think there is any credible alternative to 1. Over time if we are to remain somewhat independent.
But the amount of change to the structure and worldview of European leadership, that would be required to get there makes me doubtful that there's a snowballs chance in hell.
@yannisbuilds @FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 Yannis are you from Sweden?
@luke_drago_ @gabriel1 @lesswrong weak anti-rec. see this thread
@PatrikGayer @FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 I understand you're talking your book, but that's silly. Even the wealthiest companies avoid Europe during their innovation phases
Facebook banned the EU from Threads until they figured out the product worked, and AI firms have long done the same with new models and voice tech
@saarw @FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 Yes, Europe is overregulated. But I've worked with public policy on both sides of the Atlantic and there's a lot of stupid red tape in the US, too. Simply not a satisfactory explanation to the innovation gap. However, difference in scale of available capital is.
@saarw @FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 I bet you're a hoot at parties. You've never met me and instead of assuming best intent, impugn my motives. Falsely, I might add.
And the silly example you're using really settles the Dunning-Krugerism of your posture.
Threads, the pinnacle of innovation.
Have a good night.
@USaknas @FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 Temperature would be default "hot as hell"
@geeeee_karl @FredrikHjelm4 @gabriel1 Everyone except Swedish pol would be allowed to use it
@FredrikHjelm4 @hkanji @gabriel1 Doubt it's possible to get to AGI by committee
@gabriel1 Maybe some company from india will be ahead in a few months - you never know.