@TheZvi Geopolitical forecasting is differently difficult than tech forecasting - but as a former superforecaster myself, I'm definitely willing to admit that @eli_lifland, at least, is a better geopolitical forecaster than I am.…
Worth engaging with AI-2040 in full. I have a ton of nitpicks/disagreements (but that's kind of the point of writing it out in excruciating detail)
I particularly like the vision painted in the Epilogue, in which humanity institutes universal basic galactic rights via a…
Plan A has a lot of moving parts, but the beating heart is total research transparency: "We'll agree to let each other see all the AI research. Then, if we don't like something someone is doing, we'll talk about it." This would be a huge deal for governing misalignment risk. 🧵…