Critics Fault NBER Study Linking Mobile Coverage To Fertility Declines

@lymanstoneky I don't think "hackery" is the right word? Like I wouldn't generally expect a journalist to understand the distinction.

@besttrousers @lymanstoneky If you're a reporter, you call someone up who understands this stuff. Or at least ask a good AI model.

@CharlesFLehman @lymanstoneky Right, but people don't know that they don't understand the distinction.

@besttrousers @lymanstoneky it's incumbent on journalists to try to understand topics they report on! I taught myself a lot of this stuff out of books in my free time so I feel like I can demand others do the same.

@besttrousers @lymanstoneky A lot.

The bigger point here is that if you don't have any way of understanding the methodology of a study, claiming that the study has serious methodological flaws is indeed hackery.

@besttrousers @lymanstoneky It's bad to make strong claims about this sort of stuff if you don't understand the distinction

@lymanstoneky Reason, as I have become aware over the years, is not known for their, well, reasoning.

@CharlesFLehman @besttrousers also, Elizabeth has been writing *specifically on the fertility beat* for many years. she's not dabbling her toes here. she's, in full knowledge, choosing to misrepresent the evidence.

@lymanstoneky But AT&T network coverage is also plausibly confounded

@Noahpinion @besttrousers @lymanstoneky is there such a thing tho

@besttrousers @lymanstoneky Which is to say, Dunning-Kruger is not an excuse for shoddy work.

"I'm ignorant, so how could I be expected to understand how ignorant I was?" is not an appropriate defense of mistakes made in ignorance.

@Noahpinion @lymanstoneky What percentage of reporters do you think have ever called someone to ask about exogeneity?

@CharlesFLehman @lymanstoneky I mean, I agree that everyone should learn this. But also I think hackery is still not the right word?

@lymanstoneky @CharlesFLehman Fair enough! You follow this closer than me.

@lymanstoneky I am curious what you think the causal path for this paper is?

What variable is cell coverage a proxy for if it is not iPhone ownership?

@lymanstoneky At the end of the day who cares? Less traffic, fewer crowded spaces and fewer resources being gobbled up. Humans are a virus

@jodiecongirl @Noahpinion @lymanstoneky Judea Pearl is just constantly responding to these calls; had to hire a secretarial team.

@CharlesFLehman @lymanstoneky Error vs malice (many such cases!).

@CharlesFLehman @lymanstoneky

@Noahpinion Well, if we ever decide that technology is killing us, I propose we roll back to 1985 and stay there.