OpenAI's Gabriel Petersson says AI token consumption will replace headcount as the largest operating expense for some companies
He warns that slow-adapting executives face rapid replacement
Users see AI token costs rising to companies' top expense as a sign of intelligence gains and efficiencies, while others expect token economics to collapse or CEOs to lose their edge.
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denier ceos will have a hard time when their board asks why their competitor can do their accouting, repetitive operations work, and customer calls 10x faster and 10x cheaper. and it would take at least a year to intuitively understand and implement
the hardest task for CEOs for 300 years have been scaling companies with more people
but tokens will quickly rise to be some companies largest cost. this will happen at the speed of CEOs learning how to adapt ai or being replaced
that's why companies scramble to use "ai", people really want to learn
when you have intelligence on a tap that improves 4x per year, and intelligence is the most important ingredient to economic productivity, it's becoming increasingly obvious for them where we're heading
denier ceos will have a hard time when their board asks why their competitor can do their accouting, repetitive operations work, and customer calls 10x faster and 10x cheaper. and it would take at least a year to intuitively understand and implement
@gabriel1 It is very funny when you look at corporate history with the reframe of it being forced scaling of people despite no one wanting that
the hardest task for CEOs for 300 years have been scaling companies with more people
but tokens will quickly rise to be some companies largest cost. this will happen at the speed of CEOs learning how to adapt ai or being replaced
@gabriel1 Recently started reading about the Science of Scaling, and one idea stood out that every era has its scaling constraint. For 300 years it was people. In the AI era, it may be how effectively organizations scale intelligence through tokens, systems, and automation.
@trisatopos thats what they said every6 months and yet people crave intelligence on an exponential and labs keep 10xing intelligence and getting further lead from others
@gabriel1 Token economics will collapse before the end of the year
@gabriel1 COBALT gonna be the next robotics platform by @animesh_garg
I think there's a second shift happening.
For decades, CEOs learned how to allocate people.
Soon they'll need to learn how to allocate intelligence.
Not every task needs the smartest model. Not every workflow needs unlimited autonomy. Not every customer interaction deserves premium inference.
The companies that figure that out early will have a very different margin profile.
@gabriel1 I’ve been telling clients to expect 5-10% of net sales will be AI compute, and this will be expected in 10k and investor decks. The ROI will be easily justified by huge reductions in COGS.
@gabriel1 So as a result CEOs will be scaling companies worth billions of dollars with maybe 1-2 people at best…what a life
@gabriel1 Insider info on new infra out of MIT for AI orchestration. Will be public knowledge outside small circle of academics probably next month.
@gabriel1 One of the recurring patterns in technology is that solving a constraint often reveals a new one.
If AI dramatically reduces the cost of certain types of labor, attention may shift toward efficiently allocating intelligence rather than simply accessing it.
@gabriel1 A big part of the CEO-experience is imposing power over a lot of humans. Controlling AI agents instead of humans deprives them of this experience.
@gabriel1 Then what do u think is the most important thing for an Ai pioneer that has been exposed to the field for years. Ofc it’s building and shipping. But what else would u keep in mind or hold ur self with ?
@gabriel1 prefix ~ experience wasn't that always significant cost?
@InvestorRVD @gabriel1 @animesh_garg 👏🏽
@gabriel1 Token maxing is the way, Mr. CEO. Thanks for understanding.
@gabriel1 the org chart is becoming a spend dashboard real quick with token usage.
@gabriel1 CEO will just get automated soon too, problem takes care of itself.
@gabriel1 tokens are the new payroll.