Noah Smith referenced the data when addressing China chip production claims.
If Chinese domestic AI chip production were booming, why isn't it showing up in SMIC's finances—China's advanced-node fab? SMIC's closest AI/datacenter category has been flat at $300M/quarter for 3 years.
Over the same period, TSMC's equivalent 3x'd.
Users criticized posts about SMIC's flat $300M quarterly AI chip revenue as misleading lies or propaganda because they see them as attempts to confuse readers or downplay China's progress amid export control debates.
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Export controls, especially controls on chipmaking equipment (SME), work.
TSMC's "HPC" (mostly AI) share went from 44% to 61%. SMIC's went down. Both grew in absolute revenue, though TSMC more.
@ohlennart FT says Huawei’s AI chip sales are surging (+60% to ~$12B this year). But SMIC’s numbers still look weak because they’re stuck with very low yields (20-50%) and crazy high costs for national goals. They’re selling more but making almost no profit. https://www.ft.com/content/b82fa156-d1db-40e5-bce5-3c5f8f54069b?syn-25a6b1a6=1
@ohlennart Hi Lennart
I think 1. there total % of advanced node capacity is just ~2% of total capacity. 2. most advanced node wafer is used for production of Kirin SoC used in phones, categorised as smartphones 3. tablets and personal computer are negatively affected by surging dram price
@ohlennart you can double check with it. And I think it will start contributing a obvious revenue after 2028
@ohlennart @ChrisRMcGuire A quite misleading post aimed at confusing non-informed readers. No serious analyst claimed that Chinese AI chip production was “booming” between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. The real turning point came much later: the March/April 2026 rollout of Huawei’s Ascend 950PR ecosystem
@Noahpinion Export controls do work, but they are evil and should not be done, they shouldn't be done precisely because they do work
Why someone who supports the free market like you support such illiberal policy? That it works is not a consolation price, genocide also works
@ohlennart @ChrisRMcGuire and the announcement that DeepSeek V4 had been adapted to run on it. Multiple reports also explicitly stated that large-scale deployment and production ramp-up were expected later in 2026, meaning those developments would not yet appear in earlier SMIC financials
@Zifou @ohlennart @ChrisRMcGuire I don't know where these people heard claims that SMIC leading nodes production had dramatically surged in late 2025, if they even did. It's clear that production so far has been fairly limited and probably not profitable. But a dramatic surge in capacity is coming
@ohlennart Because it isn’t. It’s somewhere between an overstatement and outright lie
@ohlennart That's because your untrained brain is thinking linearly.
@ohlennart FYI, advanced node and deprecation have been killing profit
@Noahpinion The chinese company that are really doing well seems to be one called "CXMT".
@RYANHINGSHING @ohlennart @cherylwoooo
@Zifou @ohlennart @ChrisRMcGuire The current plan is 5x production increase in the next two years per Nikkei from multiple sources https://www.reuters.com/world/china/top-chinese-chipmakers-plan-boost-advanced-chip-output-nikkei-reports-2026-02-24/
@Noahpinion or into dumping even more bucks into ai bubble, because why would they throw there their yuans
@ohlennart @GlennLuk
@ohlennart Selling price, dimwit.
@AlejandroZarUrd @Noahpinion Because china uses it to develop their military, and is an adversary for the US. it is also a subversive agent that interferes in American democracy, sends fentanyl to kill Americans, and has stolen trillions in IP.
@ohlennart Wafer usage for AI chips is roughly 1% to 4% of SMIC total output. You can calculate it based on Huawei chip delivery. While it increased a lot the total remains a minor number
@Noahpinion morgan stanley and pretty much every major chip CEO is also chinese propaganda now