Nathan Young cited the document to defend predictive forecasting.
Users criticize the Europe AI scenario forecast as not genuine forecasting but a terrible example that misses key elements.
@NathanpmYoung @marcusabramovi1 I think this is an issue I’ve had with the forecasting community, which is that I don’t see this story-telling scenario planning-style exercise meant to start a discussion as “forecasting.”
e.g. there’s a difference between strategic foresight vs forecasting (on manifold)
@NathanpmYoung @marcusabramovi1 Note, I wrote about this wrt to AGI strategy in dec 2022: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GbXAeq6smRzmYRSQg/foresight-for-agi-safety-strategy-mitigating-risks-and
@NathanpmYoung @marcusabramovi1 But... this seems like negative evidence? Or whatever it is doing it is not forecasting? It's a terrible forecast that completely fails to talk about any of the interesting and important things about ASI!