I sat down with @arimorcos and @_RobToews for our recurring AI vibe check. We got into the tenuous future of open source models, the latest in the lab wars and some really interesting future implications of the compute crunch. It's been far too long since we did one of these and I always have fun jamming with these two. This time we hit on:
▪️ Why near-frontier open weight AI may be disappearing ▪️ Will compute constraints push labs to suspend their own APIs ▪️ Frustrations around Fable ▪️ OpenAI’s future ▪️ Where we are with Recursive Self Improvement and its implications
We also hit on Cursor/xAI, ASML competitors and a ton more.
0:00 Intro 1:40 Coding Agents Cross a Threshold 3:29 Is Open-Weight AI in Retreat? 7:37 Cost Crunch & Scaffolding 12:13 The "Apps Are Cooked" Debate 16:37 Sam Altman Under Scrutiny 19:44 Anthropic's Fable Backlash 23:24 How Big a Step Change Is Fable? 26:50 What's Going On at Google? 33:20 Could the APIs Go Away? 34:11 Breaking the Semiconductor Bottleneck 35:42 Beyond EUV: Atom & X-Ray Lithography 37:23 Implications of a Compute Shortage 40:20 Do Alt Chips Actually Help? 43:43 SpaceX, xAI & the Cursor Acquisition 48:50 How Close Are We to RSI? 52:21 Quickfire
YouTube: https://youtu.be/W_iO8XxgD_I Spotify: https://bit.ly/4envbk8 Apple: https://bit.ly/4eoD4FT
