He estimates a 50% chance of superintelligence within ten years
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-ai-opinions
From Scott Alexander's post on timelines today. His AGI numbers (which he defines as AI intelligent enough to do 90% of knowledge work jobs) are: - 25% by 2027 - 50% by 2034 - 75% by 2045.
Users agree with an X user's report of shorter AGI timelines than Scott Alexander's, noting they have already been saying the same.
From Scott Alexander's post on timelines today. His AGI numbers (which he defines as AI intelligent enough to do 90% of knowledge work jobs) are: - 25% by 2027 - 50% by 2034 - 75% by 2045.
@tenobrus Yes, I was surprised as well. But mine were similar to this only a few years ago, so I can't throw stones.
@AndrewCurran_ kinda crazy to find out my timelines are significantly shorter than scott's
@tenobrus @AndrewCurran_ Been saying this. https://atomeons.com/founders-view/2026-05-20-sound-the-alarm?fbclid=IwY2xjawSYREZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEezwvXCykctl9oBUtpEYKv7CfdkfTHaQCOx_LaWnAjcb_zBcj-yIluFyz72gI_aem_povkDipN_-eCnCoVMOJOtg
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