The trajectory implies a $20 trillion market capitalization by 2029.
NVDA datacenter revenue growth has been tracking my forecast from april 2025 that gave timelines to remote work automation on the order of 20 years
i had argued an exponential forecast was too bullish and a linear one too bearish, and projected the intermediate curve
@EgeErdil2 so at a 20x multiple they would be at a market cap of 20T in 2029?
NVDA datacenter revenue growth has been tracking my forecast from april 2025 that gave timelines to remote work automation on the order of 20 years
i had argued an exponential forecast was too bullish and a linear one too bearish, and projected the intermediate curve
see https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/the-case-for-multi-decade-ai-timelines for more context
NVDA datacenter revenue growth has been tracking my forecast from april 2025 that gave timelines to remote work automation on the order of 20 years
i had argued an exponential forecast was too bullish and a linear one too bearish, and projected the intermediate curve
@scaling01 20x multiple of revenue, yes, which i think is fair if you believe the intermediate forecast
on the intermediate trajectory, discounting by 15%/yr to account for NVDA's higher market beta, the current "fair value" would be like $15T, and $20T around 2029
@EgeErdil2 so at a 20x multiple they would be at a market cap of 20T in 2029?
@scaling01 i think even this understates it because the valuation should be convex to timelines, and timelines could be significantly shorter
the shorter timelines worlds should push up the valuation more than further ones push it down
@scaling01 20x multiple of revenue, yes, which i think is fair if you believe the intermediate forecast
on the intermediate trajectory, discounting by 15%/yr to account for NVDA's higher market beta, the current "fair value" would be like $15T, and $20T around 2029
@scaling01 (i'm assuming like ~ 50% margins)
@scaling01 i think even this understates it because the valuation should be convex to timelines, and timelines could be significantly shorter
the shorter timelines worlds should push up the valuation more than further ones push it down