Michiel Bakker's Europe 2031 project rolls out a five-year speculative narrative on how lagging AI infrastructure investment could push the continent toward geopolitical and economic irrelevance, complete with a 2034 epilogue sketching reversal steps, plus full text, a short summary, and an audio narration by Tom Chivers hosted at europe2031.ai.
"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
The scenario stresses Europe's dependence on outside compute resources and the resulting erosion of economic resilience without detailing verified spending figures or exact timelines beyond the core projection.
An appended 2034 section maps hypothetical prevention paths, leaving readers to weigh whether the outlined steps could realistically shift Europe's position before the projected slide accelerates.
Many users praised the Europe 2031 AI reports for stressing urgent policy action, while others dismissed them as defeatist or corporate hype.
Scenario: https://europe2031.ai Summary: https://europe2031.ai/summary Audio: https://europe2031.ai/audio/
The ⭐⭐⭐ team: Daan Juijn, Stan van Baarsen @DadaJudith Lily Stelling, @philip_fox_ @AlexTPet @TomChivers
"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
A plausible and frightening vision of Europe's near future, ending in economic collapse and vassal status under the US or China. Enjoyed reading it, although I feel a little depressed now.
https://europe2031.ai/
Essential content for anyone who cares about Europe's future in a world of AI acceleration!
Europe 2031: What getting AI wrong means for us - discussed it all with @SebJohnsonUK
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
Full scenario: https://europe2031.ai/ Executive summary: https://europe2031.ai/summary/ Pdf: https://europe2031.ai/europe-2031.pdf Audiobook: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0c8iIvzD5IEnT6xz6SU8q5
@DadaJudith good read, lets hope it wakes the right people up
6/ Europe 2031 ends with five concrete actions 10-100x bolder than what Europe is proposing now: drastically more compute on European soil, AI middle-power coalition, labour-market reforms, a bold position in robotics & ind. AI, & a positive vision of what AI can do for society.
Every European leader, politician and policymaker needs to stop what they're doing, and read this right now.
"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
I enjoyed listening to this a lot.
A few questions:
1. Do you think you may have underplayed the positive stuff in Europe at the same time? Wouldn’t the productivity boom have eased the fiscal crisis?
2. Europe is mostly, but not wholly talked about as single unit (with the exception really of Netherlands/France). But, isn’t there a chance say Denmark with its flexicurity model would have managed the disruption much better? (I suspect the sovereignty/buy European stuff would have been much less likely to get off the ground.)
3. The rate of progress described makes me wonder how defensible ASML is? If China is cracking robotics/AI is improving so fast, how long is it really before the US builds one?
@DadaJudith the signal conversations are my favourite part!
7/ In our story, there was a window to act in 2026. We are in it right now. Let's act accordingly. It's time to be ambitious about our future again. Huge thanks to my co-authors @bakkermichiel @AlexTPet @TomChivers
2/ Plenty in Silicon Valley have already written the continent off. We don't accept this. Europe can still change course if it finds the political will and the courage to engage in the most ambitious political and economic agenda the continent has undertaken in peacetime.
I respect your work and plan to read it, but the very existence and necessity of this report *is the problem*. The fact that a continent must be dragged kicking and screaming into what's undeniably the future is a sign of doom. The fact that European companies aren't elbowing each other in the face to innovate in this space is the very definition of surrender.
3/ Our story follows Caroline, a policy worker in Brussels, and Christian, a German founder in SF, told through six years of their texts. This is not a prediction - it is one plausible path, written so Europe can feel and think through what the trend lines mean.
4/ We are researchers, scientists and investors who have advised European leaders, co-authored national AI strategies, built and funded these systems from the inside. We have no interest in hype and we deeply care about this continent.
5/ Europe can still change course if it finds the political will and the courage to engage in the most ambitious political and economic agenda the continent has undertaken in peacetime.
@AlexTPet @DadaJudith @bakkermichiel Very important topic! Thanks for working on this Alex
I'm deeply concerned about Europe's future on AI. One of my biggest worries is our erosion of agency, our ability to stay relevant and fight for our values in a future where AI becomes a civilisationally important technology.
Myself, @DadaJudith , @bakkermichiel and others have written a scenario to outline a potential future we worry we are on track towards.
https://europe2031.ai/
Every optimistic and realistic path I can see for Europe runs through a central node - one where Europe has more leverage, more importance and more say. One where Europe grows more, builds more where it matters, and takes ownership over its resilience.
Europe 2031 is a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance: how AI is driving it, and what can still be done.
The co-authors are researchers, scientists and investors who have advised European leaders, co-authored national AI strategies, built and funded these systems from the inside. We have no interest in hype and we deeply care about this continent.
Europe 2031 ends with five concrete recommendations: - drastically more compute on European soil - an AI middle-power coalition - labour-market reforms - a bold position in robotics and industrial AI - and a positive vision of what AI can do for society.
Europe can still change course if it finds the political will and the courage to engage in the most ambitious political and economic agenda the continent has undertaken in peacetime.
I encourage you to read it if you have the time:
@AlexTPet @DadaJudith @bakkermichiel This is amazing work. Thank you
@DadaJudith 🫡🫡🫡
Michiel Bakker's Europe 2031 project rolls out a five-year speculative narrative on how lagging AI infrastructure investment could push the continent toward geopolitical and economic irrelevance, complete with a 2034 epilogue sketching reversal steps, plus full text, a short summary, and an audio narration by Tom Chivers hosted at europe2031.ai.
"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
