@jukan05 Wait, you said you won't comment any Semi reporting?

@jukan05 what the fuck man? At that time no vendor really secure orders, so SA’s forecast is bull shit.

@jukan05 Yeah but they publicly say didnt have share in newsletter then do the institutional note BS within 10 days to screw over retail. They've done that THREE times now in the past 10 weeks for Micron, CPO, and 800V....

@dylan522p Not a good look

@jukan05 The fact that $MU hasn't received any orders at the time of reporting, doesn't imply that MU would not gain share in HBM4, that's an overinterpretation

So yeah, was not false But also was not true It was unknown That's the problem if I get it right (?)

@Freedomly7 This is not a comment on their current report.

@jukan05 they didn't bother to ask MU? either it was very bad reporting or plain manipulation. there is no other alternative here

@jukan05 you must not understand the framing, when the report came out the wording made it seem that MU would never see HBM4 validation.

@jukan05 So your point is that they were right just before they were wrong.

Got it.

@jukan05 Fair, but shouldn’t analysis ultimately be judged by the outcome it predicts? If CPO isn’t delayed, then the current thesis would have been wrong, even if it was reasonable based on the information available today.

@jukan05 It is still bad journalism since they never actually checked with Micron. If they had, they would know what they reported was not true. SA seems to have their own agenda now. Not sure if it’s colluding with institutions to create market dips.

@Interestingna11 @jukan05 @dylan522p every time they open their mouth, market tanks.

@jukan05 stop spreading wrong info

Just because Micron had yet received HBM4 order from Nvidia at the time, that alone did not excuse SemiAnalysis from making lazy assumptions on finalized market share for HBM4. Again, they didn’t bother to check w/ enough sources to validate those assumptions, as HBM4 allocation schedule was still very much premature at the time. And they are doing it again w/ CPO. The guys at the SemiAnalysis are getting cocky thinking that they know it all w/o cross referencing all possible sources and more importantly reaching out to the companies directly involved for comments.

@jukan05 @labubu_trader “Right at time” but ultimately wrong is still wrong.

@jukan05 暂时还没有份额和不会获得份额是两码事。一个是描述现状，现在时；一个是带有预判，将来时。

@jukan05 @labubu_trader if SA said “MU would not gain share…” then it’s a prediction and it’s wrong. if SA said “MU has not gained share..” then it’s factually correct.

@jukan05 So they run before they can walk and then limp to correct themselves!

@jukan05 Oh well 😉

@jukan05 These outlets have their own agenda. It is worth working backwards with their logic. Of course NVDA was going to order HBM4 from Micron — just because it wasn’t publicized it didn’t happen? Careful with semianalysis. Jensen visiting Idaho is very different from visiting SK.

@jukan05 My internal plan is as follows ⬇️